La Liga Gameweek 24 Sun, Feb 14 · 16:00 Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia
Levante 17th · 7 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Malaga 20th · 4 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel468 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Levante—%
Draw—%
Malaga—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Valencia)

Forecast from 30 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Levante and Malaga. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

LevanteMalaga
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
48 Current StrengthIn forecast 41
55 AttackIn forecast 28
41 DefenceIn forecast 31
29 Form indexContext 15
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Levante

Attack—
Defense risk—

Malaga

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LevanteMalaga
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.35 xGVia Att/Def 0.84
2.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.17
63% Scored inContext 56%
25% Clean sheetsContext 11%
11.88 ShotsContext 11.33
4.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
36% On target shareContext 27%
7.71 Shots in the boxContext 6.67
58% Box shareContext 62%
13% ConversionContext 6%
2.25 OffsidesContext 1.63
15.25 Shots allowedContext 14.89
5.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.89
3.38 BlocksContext 4.00
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78
62% Save rateContext 64%
44% PossessionIn forecast 51%
381 PassesContext 481
309 Accurate passesContext 417
81% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.75 Team ratingContext 6.70
9.88 FoulsContext 11.56
12.75 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67
1.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.44
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 9 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 0.84
1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.04
70% Scored inContext 60%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
12.20 ShotsContext 11.40
4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20
36% On target shareContext 28%
8.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
62% Box shareContext 64%
12% ConversionContext 7%
1.83 OffsidesContext 1.63
14.90 Shots allowedContext 14.70
5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90
3.56 BlocksContext 3.70
3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90
66% Save rateContext 66%
42% PossessionIn forecast 51%
359 PassesContext 474
291 Accurate passesContext 408
81% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.80 Team ratingContext 6.74
9.60 FoulsContext 10.90
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Levante
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km275 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 29 · 3 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
  • D16 OctA · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.2 xPts
  • D12 OctH · Sevilla3–31.6 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Villarreal1–30.9 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Barcelona2–40.5 xPts
  • D6 SepA · Malaga0–01.3 xPts
Malaga
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel468 km1,626 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 15 · 2 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Real Sociedad2–51.5 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Espanyol1–11.6 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Getafe0–11.2 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Villarreal1–31.3 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Celta Vigo1–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Levante Malaga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 7 Feb7La Liga 2026-2027, 7 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km468 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways275 km1,626 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Levante Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Deportivo La Coruna (A) 1–1, 16 Oct
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez 3Ifeanyi Ndukwe 4Adrián de la Fuente 29Nacho Pérez
6Reque 20Oriol Rey 18E. Bardeli
24T. Fernandez 9Iván Romero 7Roger Brugué
Malaga Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 2–5, 18 Oct
1Alfonso Herrero(G)
12José Salinas 15Ángel Recio 20F. Calero Villa 31Rafita
18Pablo Martínez 8Carlos Dotor 23Izan Merino 10David Larrubia
9Chupe 21Adrián Niño

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Levante Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Malaga Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Levante · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
3.33
Conceded
3.00
Malaga · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
0.25
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentLevanteMalaga
Deportivo La Coruna D 1–1 A D 1–1 H
Villarreal L 1–3 A L 1–3 H
Espanyol L 0–3 A D 1–1 H
Points1 of 9 · 0.33 per game2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Levante wins1 draws0 Malaga wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 100%
  • 6 Sep 2026Malaga0–0Levante

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LevanteMalagaForecast
Scored per game 1.500.67
Conceded per game 2.002.00
Match goals 3.502.67
Over 1.5 75%78%
Over 2.5 63%33%
Over 3.5 50%33%
Both teams scored 63%56%
Clean sheets 25%11%
Failed to score 38%44%
Games89
LevanteMalagaForecast
Scored per game 1.500.67
Conceded per game 1.802.00
Match goals 3.302.67
Over 1.5 80%78%
Over 2.5 60%33%
Over 3.5 40%33%
Both teams scored 60%56%
Clean sheets 30%11%
Failed to score 30%44%
Games109

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LevanteMalagaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.865.56
Corners conceded5.714.89
Match total9.5710.459.91
Over 8.543% 3/778% 7/9
Over 9.543% 3/767% 6/9
Over 10.529% 2/744% 4/9
Cards
Cards1.252.44
Opponent cards2.502.33
Match total3.754.774.73
Over 3.538% 3/867% 6/9
Over 4.525% 2/867% 6/9
LevanteMalagaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.335.70
Corners conceded5.565.10
Match total9.8910.809.91
Over 8.556% 5/980% 8/10
Over 9.556% 5/970% 7/10
Over 10.533% 3/950% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.502.60
Opponent cards2.202.30
Match total3.704.904.73
Over 3.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 4.520% 2/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Levante8 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 4 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
Malaga9 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
1 2 0-15
5 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 4 76-90
Levante10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
4 0-15
1 1 16-30
4 4 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
7 4 76-90
Malaga10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
1 2 0-15
5 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 1 46-60
3 3 61-75
2 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Valencia Alaves Feb 1416:00 Villarreal Barcelona Feb 1416:00 Sevilla Espanyol Feb 1416:00 Celta Vigo Rayo Vallecano Feb 1416:00 Levante Malaga Feb 1416:00 Real Madrid Athletic Club Feb 1416:00 Real Sociedad Real Betis Feb 1416:00 Osasuna Atletico Madrid Feb 1416:00 Elche Deportivo La Coruna Feb 1416:00 Racing Santander Getafe Feb 1416:00