La Liga Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 7 · 16:00 Estadio Abanca-Riazor, La Coruña
Deportivo La Coruna 9th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Malaga 20th · 4 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel813 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Deportivo La Coruna—%
Draw—%
Malaga—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (La Coruña)

Forecast from 23 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Deportivo La Coruna and Malaga. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Deportivo La CorunaMalaga
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
45 Current StrengthIn forecast 41
40 AttackIn forecast 28
57 DefenceIn forecast 31
21 Form indexContext 15
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Deportivo La Coruna

Attack—
Defense risk—

Malaga

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Deportivo La CorunaMalaga
1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67
1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.08 xGVia Att/Def 0.84
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
+0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.17
89% Scored inContext 56%
0% Clean sheetsContext 11%
11.67 ShotsContext 11.33
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
37% On target shareContext 27%
7.89 Shots in the boxContext 6.67
64% Box shareContext 62%
12% ConversionContext 6%
1.71 OffsidesContext 1.63
12.56 Shots allowedContext 14.89
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.89
3.11 BlocksContext 4.00
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78
69% Save rateContext 64%
48% PossessionIn forecast 51%
444 PassesContext 481
376 Accurate passesContext 417
85% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.79 Team ratingContext 6.70
13.00 FoulsContext 11.56
11.89 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67
1.78 Yellow cardsContext 2.44
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.08 xGVia Att/Def 0.84
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
+0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.04
90% Scored inContext 60%
0% Clean sheetsContext 10%
11.10 ShotsContext 11.40
4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20
38% On target shareContext 28%
7.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
66% Box shareContext 64%
13% ConversionContext 7%
1.63 OffsidesContext 1.63
11.80 Shots allowedContext 14.70
4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90
3.00 BlocksContext 3.70
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90
69% Save rateContext 66%
48% PossessionIn forecast 51%
455 PassesContext 474
389 Accurate passesContext 408
85% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.74
12.80 FoulsContext 10.90
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Deportivo La Coruna
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,103 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -3.7 vs expected
  • D16 OctH · Levante1–11.6 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Real Sociedad2–31.1 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Real Betis1–11.2 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Sevilla0–11.6 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Getafe1–11.3 xPts
Malaga
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel813 km1,524 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Form 15 · 2 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Real Sociedad2–51.5 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Espanyol1–11.6 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Getafe0–11.2 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Villarreal1–31.3 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Celta Vigo1–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Deportivo La Coruna Malaga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 17
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan7La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km813 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,103 km1,524 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Deportivo La Coruna Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Levante (H) 1–1, 16 Oct
13Leo Román(G)
12G. Quagliata 22B. Ede 20J. Giménez 23Ximo Navarro
14Riki Rodríguez 8Diego Villares 21Mario Soriano 19Luismi Cruz
32B. Nsongo 10Peke
Malaga Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 2–5, 18 Oct
1Alfonso Herrero(G)
12José Salinas 15Ángel Recio 20F. Calero Villa 31Rafita
18Pablo Martínez 8Carlos Dotor 23Izan Merino 10David Larrubia
9Chupe 21Adrián Niño

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Deportivo La Coruna Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Malaga Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Deportivo La Coruna · Home 1.20points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
1-3-1
Scored
1.20
Conceded
1.00
Malaga · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
0.25
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentDeportivo La CorunaMalaga
Levante D 1–1 H D 0–0 H
Real Sociedad L 2–3 A L 2–5 H
Getafe D 1–1 A L 0–1 A
Villarreal W 3–2 A L 1–3 H
Points5 of 12 · 1.25 per game1 of 12 · 0.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Deportivo La Coruna wins2 draws1 Malaga wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%
  • 24 Aug 2026Malaga1–1Deportivo La Coruna
  • 4 Apr 2026Deportivo La Coruna1–1Malaga
  • 12 Oct 2025Malaga3–0Deportivo La Coruna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Deportivo La CorunaMalagaForecast
Scored per game 1.440.67
Conceded per game 1.332.00
Match goals 2.782.67
Over 1.5 89%78%
Over 2.5 33%33%
Over 3.5 33%33%
Both teams scored 89%56%
Clean sheets 0%11%
Failed to score 11%44%
Games99
Deportivo La CorunaMalagaForecast
Scored per game 1.440.67
Conceded per game 1.332.00
Match goals 2.782.67
Over 1.5 89%78%
Over 2.5 33%33%
Over 3.5 33%33%
Both teams scored 89%56%
Clean sheets 0%11%
Failed to score 11%44%
Games99

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Deportivo La CorunaMalagaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.225.56
Corners conceded5.444.89
Match total10.6610.459.91
Over 8.556% 5/978% 7/9
Over 9.556% 5/967% 6/9
Over 10.533% 3/944% 4/9
Cards
Cards2.112.44
Opponent cards2.002.33
Match total4.114.774.73
Over 3.578% 7/967% 6/9
Over 4.533% 3/967% 6/9
Deportivo La CorunaMalagaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.805.70
Corners conceded5.405.10
Match total10.2010.809.91
Over 8.550% 5/1080% 8/10
Over 9.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 10.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.002.60
Opponent cards1.802.30
Match total3.804.904.73
Over 3.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Deportivo La Coruna9 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Malaga9 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
1 2 0-15
5 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 4 76-90
Deportivo La Coruna10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
4 4 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Malaga10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
1 2 0-15
5 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 1 46-60
3 3 61-75
2 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Atletico Madrid Feb 716:00 Athletic Club Osasuna Feb 716:00 Valencia Racing Santander Feb 716:00 Espanyol Rayo Vallecano Feb 716:00 Alaves Celta Vigo Feb 716:00 Real Betis Sevilla Feb 716:00 Deportivo La Coruna Malaga Feb 716:00 Getafe Villarreal Feb 716:00 Real Sociedad Real Madrid Feb 716:00 Elche Levante Feb 716:00