La Liga Gameweek 30 Sun, Apr 4 · 16:00 Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia
Levante 17th · 7 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Rayo Vallecano 13th · 9 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel302 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Levante—%
Draw—%
Rayo Vallecano—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Valencia)

Forecast from 20 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Levante and Rayo Vallecano. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

LevanteRayo Vallecano
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
48 Current StrengthIn forecast 58
55 AttackIn forecast 61
41 DefenceIn forecast 60
29 Form indexContext 66
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Levante

Attack—
Defense risk—

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LevanteRayo Vallecano
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13
1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.39
2.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.11
63% Scored inContext 100%
25% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.88 ShotsContext 14.38
4.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.63
36% On target shareContext 32%
7.71 Shots in the boxContext 7.13
58% Box shareContext 55%
13% ConversionContext 10%
2.25 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.25 Shots allowedContext 15.88
5.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.38
3.38 BlocksContext 4.00
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
62% Save rateContext 61%
44% PossessionIn forecast 51%
381 PassesContext 406
309 Accurate passesContext 334
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.75 Team ratingContext 6.72
9.88 FoulsContext 12.88
12.75 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
1.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.25
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.30
1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.10
70% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.20 ShotsContext 14.00
4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
36% On target shareContext 32%
8.22 Shots in the boxContext 6.80
62% Box shareContext 52%
12% ConversionContext 10%
1.83 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.90 Shots allowedContext 15.70
5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70
3.56 BlocksContext 4.30
3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
66% Save rateContext 67%
42% PossessionIn forecast 52%
359 PassesContext 403
291 Accurate passesContext 331
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.80 Team ratingContext 6.77
9.60 FoulsContext 13.20
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Levante
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 29 · 3 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
  • D16 OctA · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.2 xPts
  • D12 OctH · Sevilla3–31.6 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Villarreal1–30.9 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Barcelona2–40.5 xPts
  • D6 SepA · Malaga0–01.3 xPts
Rayo Vallecano
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel302 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 66 · 8 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D19 OctA · Getafe1–11.4 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Osasuna1–11.3 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Espanyol2–11.7 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Racing Santander3–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Levante Rayo Vallecano
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14La Liga 2026-2027, 21 Mar14La Liga 2026-2027, 21 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Levante Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Deportivo La Coruna (A) 1–1, 16 Oct
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez 3Ifeanyi Ndukwe 4Adrián de la Fuente 29Nacho Pérez
6Reque 20Oriol Rey 18E. Bardeli
24T. Fernandez 9Iván Romero 7Roger Brugué
Rayo Vallecano Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Getafe (A) 1–1, 19 Oct
25E. Audero(G)
17Adrià Pedrosa 15Mujaid Sadick 24F. Lejeune 20I. Balliu
6P. Ciss 8Unai López
18Álvaro García 10Sergio Camello 7Isi Palazón
19Jorge de Frutos

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Levante Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Rayo Vallecano Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Levante · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
3.33
Conceded
3.00
Rayo Vallecano · Away 0.40points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
0-2-3
Scored
1.20
Conceded
2.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentLevanteRayo Vallecano
Sevilla D 3–3 H L 1–2 A
Barcelona L 2–4 H L 2–5 A
Osasuna D 0–0 A D 1–1 A
Espanyol L 0–3 A W 2–1 H
Points2 of 12 · 0.50 per game4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Levante wins2 draws1 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.75 Over 2.550% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%
  • 16 Mar 2026Rayo Vallecano1–1Levante
  • 19 Oct 2025Levante0–3Rayo Vallecano
  • 20 May 2022Rayo Vallecano2–4Levante
  • 11 Sep 2021Levante1–1Rayo Vallecano

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LevanteRayo VallecanoForecast
Scored per game 1.501.50
Conceded per game 2.002.13
Match goals 3.503.63
Over 1.5 75%100%
Over 2.5 63%63%
Over 3.5 50%38%
Both teams scored 63%100%
Clean sheets 25%0%
Failed to score 38%0%
Games88
LevanteRayo VallecanoForecast
Scored per game 1.501.60
Conceded per game 1.801.80
Match goals 3.303.40
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 40%30%
Both teams scored 60%90%
Clean sheets 30%10%
Failed to score 30%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LevanteRayo VallecanoLeague
Corners
Corners won3.865.63
Corners conceded5.716.38
Match total9.5712.019.91
Over 8.543% 3/763% 5/8
Over 9.543% 3/763% 5/8
Over 10.529% 2/763% 5/8
Cards
Cards1.252.75
Opponent cards2.502.50
Match total3.755.254.73
Over 3.538% 3/863% 5/8
Over 4.525% 2/863% 5/8
LevanteRayo VallecanoLeague
Corners
Corners won4.335.10
Corners conceded5.566.50
Match total9.8911.609.91
Over 8.556% 5/960% 6/10
Over 9.556% 5/960% 6/10
Over 10.533% 3/960% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.503.10
Opponent cards2.202.60
Match total3.705.704.73
Over 3.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 4.520% 2/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Levante8 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 4 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
Rayo Vallecano8 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
4 2 0-15
2 5 16-30
1 1 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
4 76-90
Levante10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
4 0-15
1 1 16-30
4 4 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
7 4 76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
4 3 0-15
2 5 16-30
1 1 31-45
5 5 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Sevilla Apr 416:00 Athletic Club Racing Santander Apr 416:00 Malaga Osasuna Apr 416:00 Levante Rayo Vallecano Apr 416:00 Real Madrid Atletico Madrid Apr 416:00 Real Betis Celta Vigo Apr 416:00 Deportivo La Coruna Villarreal Apr 416:00 Getafe Espanyol Apr 416:00 Real Sociedad Valencia Apr 416:00 Elche Alaves Apr 416:00