La Liga Gameweek 30 Sun, Apr 4 · 16:00 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
Real Madrid 3rd · 21 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Atletico Madrid 2nd · 22 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel0 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Real Madrid—%
Draw—%
Atletico Madrid—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 20 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Real MadridAtletico Madrid
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
89 Current StrengthIn forecast 81
89 AttackIn forecast 82
85 DefenceIn forecast 87
91 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real MadridAtletico Madrid
2.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.11
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.89
2.41 xGVia Att/Def 1.72
1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.39
89% Scored inContext 89%
22% Clean sheetsContext 44%
17.56 ShotsContext 17.56
7.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.44
41% On target shareContext 37%
12.33 Shots in the boxContext 10.33
69% Box shareContext 60%
15% ConversionContext 12%
2.13 OffsidesContext 2.00
12.78 Shots allowedContext 9.56
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11
3.44 BlocksContext 2.89
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22
73% Save rateContext 71%
53% PossessionIn forecast 60%
528 PassesContext 590
476 Accurate passesContext 521
90% Pass accuracyContext 88%
7.17 Team ratingContext 7.05
8.44 FoulsContext 12.11
14.11 Fouls sufferedContext 11.56
2.11 Yellow cardsContext 2.22
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
2.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13
+0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.30
90% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
16.90 ShotsContext 16.10
7.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
43% On target shareContext 37%
12.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
71% Box shareContext 58%
16% ConversionContext 12%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.20
14.20 Shots allowedContext 10.20
5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
3.80 BlocksContext 2.90
3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
75% Save rateContext 71%
50% PossessionIn forecast 60%
501 PassesContext 588
446 Accurate passesContext 517
89% Pass accuracyContext 88%
7.13 Team ratingContext 7.04
8.90 FoulsContext 11.30
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km930 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts
Atletico Madrid
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +6.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Espanyol1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Manchester United2–01.7 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Alaves2–11.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Real Madrid2–11.1 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Osasuna4–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Real Madrid Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14La Liga 2026-2027, 21 Mar14La Liga 2026-2027, 21 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways930 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé
Atletico Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-1-2 · vs Espanyol (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
13J. Oblak(G)
30Dani Martínez 17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill
23M. Hjulmand 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman 15J. David

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Atletico Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
5-0-0
Scored
3.40
Conceded
0.60
Atletico Madrid · Away 2.40points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
4-0-1
Scored
1.80
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentReal MadridAtletico Madrid
Sevilla W 4–1 H W 3–1 A
Villarreal W 1–0 H D 2–2 H
Malaga W 4–0 H W 2–0 H
Real Sociedad W 4–1 H W 3–0 A
Espanyol W 2–1 A W 1–0 A
Points15 of 15 · 3.00 per game13 of 15 · 2.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 15 meetings

2 Real Madrid wins4 draws4 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.80 Over 2.550% Both scored90% Clean sheets0% · 10%
  • 20 Sep 2026Atletico Madrid2–1Real Madrid
  • 22 Mar 2026Real Madrid3–2Atletico Madrid
  • 27 Sep 2025Atletico Madrid5–2Real Madrid
  • 12 Mar 2025Atletico Madrid1–0Real Madrid
  • 4 Mar 2025Real Madrid2–1Atletico Madrid
  • 8 Feb 2025Real Madrid1–1Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Real MadridAtletico MadridForecast
Scored per game 2.562.11
Conceded per game 1.000.89
Match goals 3.563.00
Over 1.5 78%89%
Over 2.5 78%78%
Over 3.5 56%33%
Both teams scored 67%44%
Clean sheets 22%44%
Failed to score 11%11%
Games99
Real MadridAtletico MadridForecast
Scored per game 2.702.00
Conceded per game 1.201.00
Match goals 3.903.00
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 60%30%
Both teams scored 70%50%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Real MadridAtletico MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won6.255.57
Corners conceded4.253.57
Match total10.509.149.91
Over 8.563% 5/843% 3/7
Over 9.563% 5/843% 3/7
Over 10.563% 5/843% 3/7
Cards
Cards2.332.33
Opponent cards2.671.89
Match total5.004.224.73
Over 3.578% 7/967% 6/9
Over 4.567% 6/944% 4/9
Real MadridAtletico MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won6.305.00
Corners conceded5.004.25
Match total11.309.259.91
Over 8.570% 7/1050% 4/8
Over 9.570% 7/1050% 4/8
Over 10.570% 7/1050% 4/8
Cards
Cards2.202.20
Opponent cards2.501.70
Match total4.703.904.73
Over 3.580% 8/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Real Madrid9 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
2 0-15
6 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
7 3 76-90
Atletico Madrid9 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
8 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Sevilla Apr 416:00 Athletic Club Racing Santander Apr 416:00 Malaga Osasuna Apr 416:00 Levante Rayo Vallecano Apr 416:00 Real Madrid Atletico Madrid Apr 416:00 Real Betis Celta Vigo Apr 416:00 Deportivo La Coruna Villarreal Apr 416:00 Getafe Espanyol Apr 416:00 Real Sociedad Valencia Apr 416:00 Elche Alaves Apr 416:00