Deportivo La Coruna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Deportivo La Coruna
9th · 11 pts · 9 played
DLDLD
VS—
Compare
Villarreal
12th · 9 pts · 9 played
LWWLD
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel787 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Deportivo La Coruna—%
Draw—%
Villarreal—%
Weather (La Coruña)
Forecast from 20 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Deportivo La Coruna and Villarreal. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Villarreal
+0.82
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.30
-
Trend
Deportivo La Coruna
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Villarreal
1.7
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Villarreal
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Villarreal
+0.82
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.30
-
Trend
Villarreal
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Deportivo La Coruna
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Villarreal
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Deportivo La CorunaVillarreal
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
40
AttackIn forecast
76
57
DefenceIn forecast
73
21
Form indexContext
79
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Deportivo La CorunaVillarreal
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
2.13
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.69
89%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
11.67
ShotsContext
16.33
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.33
37%
On target shareContext
39%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
11.11
64%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.89
12.56
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.11
BlocksContext
5.14
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
69%
Save rateContext
77%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
444
PassesContext
573
376
Accurate passesContext
510
85%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.00
FoulsContext
11.11
11.89
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.22
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
2.12
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.52
90%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.10
ShotsContext
16.50
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
38%
On target shareContext
36%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
66%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.90
11.80
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.00
BlocksContext
4.63
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
69%
Save rateContext
72%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
455
PassesContext
560
389
Accurate passesContext
493
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.80
FoulsContext
10.40
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Deportivo La Coruna
DLDLD
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,592 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -3.7 vs expected
Villarreal
WWLWD
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel787 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Deportivo La Coruna |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14La Liga 2026-2027, 21 Mar | 14La Liga 2026-2027, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 787 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,592 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Deportivo La Coruna
Last XI · not confirmed
13Leo Román(G)
12G. Quagliata
22B. Ede
20J. Giménez
23Ximo Navarro
14Riki Rodríguez
8Diego Villares
21Mario Soriano
19Luismi Cruz
32B. Nsongo
10Peke
Villarreal
Last XI · not confirmed
25P. Gulácsi(G)
23Sergi Cardona
2Logan Costa
8J. Foyth
3A. Freeman
10Alberto Moleiro
16Carlos Macia
14Santi Comesaña
11I. Akhomach
21T. Oluwaseyi
22Ayoze Pérez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Deportivo La Coruna
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Villarreal
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Deportivo La Coruna · Home
1.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-1
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.00
Villarreal · Away
1.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Deportivo La Coruna | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Malaga | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Deportivo La Coruna wins0 draws0 Villarreal wins
Goals per game3.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 5 Sep 2026Villarreal2–3Deportivo La Coruna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Deportivo La Coruna | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 2.89 | |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 67% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 3.10 | |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 30% | |
| Games | 9 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Deportivo La Coruna | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 7.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 10.66 | 11.55 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.11 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 4.78 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Deportivo La Coruna | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 11.20 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.60 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Deportivo La Coruna9 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Villarreal9 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Deportivo La Coruna10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
4
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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