Lille vs Marseille – 5 Dec 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 15 Fri, Dec 5 · 20:00 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille 4th · 26 pts · 14 played LWLWW

1–0Full time

Marseille 3rd · 29 pts · 14 played DWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lille were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Lille had 5.2 days of rest, Marseille 6 and had to travel 831 km.

Away travel831 kmRest days5.2 · 6Matches / 14d3 · 1

Lille43%

Draw26%

Marseille31%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.29

Lille42%

Draw27%

Marseille31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22

Lille42%

Draw26%

Marseille31%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.28

Lille36%

Draw26%

Marseille38%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.45

Lille43%

Draw27%

Marseille30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.23

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 98

Team strength

Lille

Marseille

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 63

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

42 AttackIn forecast 48

60 DefenceIn forecast 46

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

Marseille

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.21 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.89

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.61

71% Scored inContext 86%

29% Clean sheetsContext 36%

15.14 ShotsContext 14.07

5.07 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.71

34% On target shareContext 41%

10.79 Shots in the boxContext 8.86

71% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 18%

1.58 OffsidesContext 1.45

9.29 Shots allowedContext 9.07

3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.79

2.46 BlocksContext 2.73

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.08

67% Save rateContext 77%

57% PossessionIn forecast 60%

487 PassesContext 588

414 Accurate passesContext 531

85% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.91 Team ratingContext 7.02

12.93 FoulsContext 11.71

12.64 Fouls sufferedContext 9.57

2.21 Yellow cardsContext 2.14

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.21

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.71

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.59

70% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.60 ShotsContext 14.20

6.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

39% On target shareContext 40%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.70

65% Box shareContext 61%

14% ConversionContext 16%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.71

7.70 Shots allowedContext 10.40

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.43 BlocksContext 3.00

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

65% Save rateContext 74%

61% PossessionIn forecast 60%

534 PassesContext 573

461 Accurate passesContext 513

86% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.98

12.20 FoulsContext 12.60

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.33

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km503 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Marseille

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel831 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	Marseille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Nov	6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	831 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	503 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 23A. Mandi 3N. Ngoy 12T. Meunier

6N. Bentaleb 21B. André

11O. Sahraoui 10H. Haraldsson 8E. Mbappé

29H. Igamane

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Marseille Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1G. Rulli(G)

21N. Aguerd 5L. Balerdi 28B. Pavard

33Emerson 18A. Vermeeren 19G. Kondogbia 22T. Weah

14Igor Paixão 10M. Greenwood

97P. Aubameyang

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Marseille Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lille+0.9 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Marseille-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home 2.29points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 5-1-1
Scored: 2.14
Conceded: 0.86

Marseille · Away 1.71points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 4-0-3
Scored: 1.71
Conceded: 0.86

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Lille	Marseille
LE Havre	W 1–0 A	W 6–2 H
Paris FC	W 4–2 H	W 5–2 H
Strasbourg	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 A
Angers	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 H
Nice	L 0–2 A	W 5–1 A
Metz	W 6–1 H	W 3–0 A
Paris Saint Germain	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 H
Lyon	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Lens	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 A
Toulouse	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 H
Lorient	W 7–1 A	W 4–0 H
Stade Brestois 29	D 3–3 A	W 3–0 H
Points	20 of 36 · 1.67 per game	26 of 36 · 2.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Lille wins4 draws1 Marseille wins

Goals per game1.38 – 0.88 Over 2.538% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 13%

4 May 2025Lille1–1Marseille
14 Dec 2024Marseille1–1Lille
5 Apr 2024Lille3–1Marseille
4 Nov 2023Marseille0–0Lille
20 May 2023Lille2–1Marseille
10 Sep 2022Marseille2–1Lille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.50
Conceded per game	1.21	1.00
Match goals	3.21	3.50	2.86
Over 1.5	71%	71%
Over 2.5	43%	71%	55%
Over 3.5	29%	43%
Both teams scored	43%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	29%	36%
Failed to score	29%	14%
Games	14	14

	Lille	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	2.60
Conceded per game	1.20	1.00
Match goals	3.30	3.60	2.86
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	80%	55%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	6.57	5.31
Corners conceded	3.79	3.62
Match total	10.36	8.93	9.35
Over 8.5	64% 9/14	38% 5/13
Over 9.5	64% 9/14	38% 5/13
Over 10.5	57% 8/14	31% 4/13
Cards
Cards	2.36	2.36
Opponent cards	2.14	1.64
Match total	4.50	4.00	4.13
Over 3.5	64% 9/14	64% 9/14
Over 4.5	57% 8/14	43% 6/14

	Lille	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	7.30	5.10
Corners conceded	3.40	3.50
Match total	10.70	8.60	9.35
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.70
Opponent cards	2.20	2.10
Match total	4.50	4.80	4.13
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 98 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.45league 3.76

Red cards0.27league 0.32

Cards 5+33%league 37%

Fouls24.0league 24.1

Penalties0.35league 0.48

Home wins40%league 50%

Lille12 with this referee

Record5-3-4 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.6 Pens for · against2 · 2

W2 Nov 25H · Angers1–01
W12 Apr 25A · Toulouse2–12
D1 Nov 24H · Lyon1–13
D21 Sep 24H · Strasbourg3–32
D16 Sep 23A · Rennes2–24

Marseille12 with this referee

Record8-3-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against3 · 2 Reds1

W22 Sep 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–04
W19 Apr 25H · Montpellier5–11
W2 Feb 25H · Lyon3–24
W8 Dec 24A · Saint Etienne2–01
D25 Nov 23A · Strasbourg1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.