Lillestrom
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lillestrom27.1%fair odds 3.70
Draw23.0%fair odds 4.34
Real Sociedad49.9%fair odds 2.00
Expected goals1.39 – 1.94total 3.34
Likeliest score1–110.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Real Sociedad
Baseline: average La Liga opponent
Attack Uplift
+34%
Expected goals
Baseline1.46Forecast1.94
Conceding Risk
−28%
Expected goals conceded
Baseline1.94Forecast1.39
Clean Sheet
+10.5 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline14.3%Forecast24.8%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lillestrom ↓ · Real Sociedad → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lillestrom goals, columns Real Sociedad goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.1%9.87
- 1–29.4%10.69
- 0–26.7%14.89
- 2–16.7%14.91
- 2–26.5%15.35
- 0–16.4%15.62
- 1–36.1%16.50
- 1–04.4%22.51
- 0–34.4%22.98
- 2–34.2%23.69
Winning margin
4.3%
Lillestrom by 3+
fair 23.41
7.8%
Lillestrom by 2
fair 12.77
15.0%
Lillestrom by 1
fair 6.69
23.0%
Draw
fair 4.34
21.1%
Real Sociedad by 1
fair 4.75
15.2%
Real Sociedad by 2
fair 6.56
13.6%
Real Sociedad by 3+
fair 7.37
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Lillestrom goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Real Sociedad goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
13%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom win | 27.1% | 26.7% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 23.0% | 23.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Real Sociedad win | 49.9% | 49.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.8% | 62.2% | +2.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 64.9% | 62.9% | +2.1 pp |
| Expected goals Lillestrom | 1.39 | 1.33 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Real Sociedad | 1.94 | 1.88 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lillestrom win27.1%3.70
- Draw23.0%4.34
- Real Sociedad win49.9%2.00
- Double chance Lillestrom or draw50.1%2.00
- Double chance Lillestrom or Real Sociedad77.0%1.30
- Double chance Real Sociedad or draw72.9%1.37
- Draw no bet Lillestrom35.2%2.84
- Draw no bet Real Sociedad64.8%1.54
Goals
- Over 0.595.9%1.04
- Over 1.585.1%1.18
- Over 2.564.8%1.54
- Over 3.542.8%2.34
- Over 4.524.4%4.10
- Under 1.514.9%6.71
- Under 2.535.2%2.84
- Under 3.557.2%1.75
Both teams to score
- Yes64.9%1.54
- No35.1%2.85
- Yes and over 2.554.8%1.83
- Lillestrom win and yes16.8%5.95
- Draw and yes19.0%5.27
- Real Sociedad win and yes29.1%3.43
Team goals
- Lillestrom over 0.575.2%1.33
- Lillestrom over 1.540.6%2.46
- Lillestrom over 2.516.5%6.07
- Real Sociedad over 0.585.7%1.17
- Real Sociedad over 1.557.9%1.73
- Real Sociedad over 2.530.8%3.25
- Lillestrom clean sheet14.3%6.98
- Real Sociedad clean sheet24.8%4.03
- Lillestrom win to nil10.3%9.75
- Real Sociedad win to nil20.8%4.82
Handicap
- Lillestrom −1.512.1%8.26
- Lillestrom −2.54.3%23.41
- Real Sociedad +1.587.9%1.14
- Real Sociedad +2.595.7%1.04
- Real Sociedad −1.528.8%3.47
- Lillestrom +1.571.2%1.40
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won66.7%
Avg chance given to result46.2%
1X2 Brier0.484
Over 2.5 called right63.9%
BTTS called right52.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 39.4% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 44.1% | 58.3% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 54.5% | 70.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4838 | 0.5043 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.2% | 47.3% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 63.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 18 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.