Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad

UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 22 · 20:00 Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller

Lillestrom 23rd · 1 pts · 2 played LD

VS— Compare

Real Sociedad 22nd · 1 pts · 2 played LD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Sociedad are slight favourites.

Real Sociedad are the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 27). Lillestrom have 7.1 days of rest, Real Sociedad 4.1 and have to travel 2,050 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel2,050 kmRest days7.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 3

Lillestrom27%

Draw23%

Real Sociedad50%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.94

Lillestrom26%

Draw26%

Real Sociedad48%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.60

Lillestrom27%

Draw23%

Real Sociedad50%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.94

Lillestrom21%

Draw21%

Real Sociedad58%

Expected goals 1.24 – 2.18

Lillestrom27%

Draw24%

Real Sociedad50%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.88

Over 2.5 65% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Kjeller)

10°CDrizzle

Precipitation 95%
Wind 15 km/h
Humidity 98%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Real Sociedad 5 Scoring in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Lillestrom

Real Sociedad

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 58

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

23 AttackIn forecast 62

31 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext 81

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lillestrom

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Sociedad

Attack+34%

Defense risk−28%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lillestrom

Real Sociedad

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.50 ShotsContext 10.00

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

28% On target shareContext 30%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 4.50

56% Box shareContext 50%

7% ConversionContext 10%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.00

13.00 Shots allowedContext 13.50

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.00 BlocksContext 3.50

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

64% Save rateContext 63%

58% PossessionIn forecast 55%

475 PassesContext 561

393 Accurate passesContext 469

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.51

11.50 FoulsContext 13.50

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

— xGVia Att/Def 1.28

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

— Goals minus xGContext +0.62

75% Scored inContext 80%

25% Clean sheetsContext 10%

— ShotsContext 13.80

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

28% On target shareContext 38%

— Shots in the boxContext 7.80

— Box shareContext 55%

7% ConversionContext 14%

— OffsidesContext 1.75

— Shots allowedContext 15.80

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

6.00 BlocksContext 3.90

— Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

64% Save rateContext 70%

55% PossessionIn forecast 50%

— PassesContext 481

— Accurate passesContext 410

— Pass accuracyContext 85%

— Team ratingContext 6.82

12.75 FoulsContext 12.40

11.25 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 4 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lillestrom LD

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,239 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 30 · 1 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected

D15 OctA · Sparta Praha1–11.1 xPts
L17 SepH · Torreense1–21.7 xPts

Real Sociedad LWWDW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel2,050 km3,482 km in 14d

Schedule load45%High

Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected

W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lillestrom	Real Sociedad
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	High · 45
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct	4.1La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,050 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,239 km	3,482 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lillestrom Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Sparta Praha (A) 1–1, 15 Oct

12P. Dahlberg(G)

26W. Paintsil 47S. Kristiansen 28L. Gabrielsen 2Lars Ranger

14G. Nyheim 21F. Ottosson 29Y. Ibrahimaj

20Vá 8F. Gulbrandsen 22D. Bassi

Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1Álex Remiro(G)

3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort

7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo

9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lillestrom No reported absences

Real Sociedad No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Lillestrom+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Real Sociedad+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Lillestrom · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Real Sociedad · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Lillestrom	Real Sociedad	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.50	1.50
Match goals	2.50	2.50	3.34
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	65%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	Lillestrom	Real Sociedad	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.90
Conceded per game	1.00	1.90
Match goals	2.00	3.80	3.34
Over 1.5	75%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	65%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	75%	80%	65%
Clean sheets	25%	10%
Failed to score	25%	20%
Games	4	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lillestrom	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	6.00
Corners conceded	4.00	3.50
Match total	10.00	9.50	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.00
Opponent cards	4.00	2.00
Match total	5.50	4.00	3.76
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2

	Lillestrom	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	6.25	7.00
Corners conceded	5.50	4.70
Match total	11.75	11.70	9.76
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	75% 3/4	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.75	2.20
Opponent cards	2.75	2.40
Match total	4.50	4.60	3.76
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	75% 3/4	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.