Liverpool vs Aston Villa – 1 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 1 · 20:00 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 10th · 15 pts · 9 played WLLLL

2–0Full time

Aston Villa 11th · 15 pts · 9 played DWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 81). Liverpool had 7 days of rest, Aston Villa 6.3 and had to travel 126 km.

Away travel126 kmRest days7 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 3

Liverpool57%

Draw23%

Aston Villa21%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.14

Liverpool54%

Draw25%

Aston Villa21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02

Liverpool57%

Draw23%

Aston Villa21%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.12

Liverpool49%

Draw24%

Aston Villa27%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.28

Liverpool54%

Draw24%

Aston Villa21%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.03

Over 2.5 61% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

No weather data yet

RefereeStuart Attwell

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 123

Team strength

Liverpool

Aston Villa

90 L90 StrengthIn forecast 81

84 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

85 AttackIn forecast 83

84 DefenceIn forecast 78

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Aston Villa

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.89

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 0.81

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

100% Scored inContext 56%

22% Clean sheetsContext 33%

15.56 ShotsContext 10.33

4.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11

29% On target shareContext 30%

10.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.13

67% Box shareContext 60%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.29 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.11 Shots allowedContext 12.11

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11

3.13 BlocksContext 4.44

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.11

59% Save rateContext 68%

63% PossessionIn forecast 55%

527 PassesContext 451

448 Accurate passesContext 386

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.88

9.22 FoulsContext 9.56

10.67 Fouls sufferedContext 13.56

1.89 Yellow cardsContext 1.56

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.30

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.70 ShotsContext 10.80

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

29% On target shareContext 34%

11.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

71% Box shareContext 60%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.22 OffsidesContext 1.89

10.20 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.67 BlocksContext 4.44

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

63% Save rateContext 75%

63% PossessionIn forecast 55%

560 PassesContext 449

487 Accurate passesContext 389

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.91

8.70 FoulsContext 10.00

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 14.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km560 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Aston Villa

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel126 km1,421 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Oct	6.3Premier League 2025-2026, 26 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	126 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	560 km	1,421 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 2	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25G. Mamardashvili(G)

26A. Robertson 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 12C. Bradley

10A. Mac Allister 38R. Gravenberch

18C. Gakpo 8D. Szoboszlai 11Mohamed Salah

22H. Ekitiké

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23E. Martínez(G)

12L. Digne 14Pau Torres 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

24A. Onana 44B. Kamara

7J. McGinn 27M. Rogers 29E. Guessand

11O. Watkins

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Aston Villa+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.25

Aston Villa · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Liverpool	Aston Villa
Brentford	L 2–3 A	L 0–1 A
Crystal Palace	L 1–2 A	L 0–3 H
Everton	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 A
Burnley	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 H
Newcastle	W 3–2 A	D 0–0 H
Points	9 of 15 · 1.80 per game	5 of 15 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Liverpool wins3 draws1 Aston Villa wins

Goals per game2.10 – 1.60 Over 2.570% Both scored70% Clean sheets30% · 0%

19 Feb 2025Aston Villa2–2Liverpool
9 Nov 2024Liverpool2–0Aston Villa
13 May 2024Aston Villa3–3Liverpool
3 Sep 2023Liverpool3–0Aston Villa
20 May 2023Liverpool1–1Aston Villa
26 Dec 2022Aston Villa1–3Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.78	1.00
Conceded per game	1.56	0.89
Match goals	3.33	1.89	3.13
Over 1.5	78%	56%
Over 2.5	78%	44%	61%
Over 3.5	33%	11%
Both teams scored	78%	44%	59%
Clean sheets	22%	33%
Failed to score	0%	44%
Games	9	9

	Liverpool	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.78	1.30
Conceded per game	1.56	0.90
Match goals	3.33	2.20	3.13
Over 1.5	78%	70%
Over 2.5	78%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	33%	10%
Both teams scored	78%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	22%	40%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	9	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.44	5.44
Corners conceded	5.00	5.44
Match total	10.44	10.88	9.89
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	89% 8/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.89	1.67
Opponent cards	2.00	2.44
Match total	3.89	4.11	3.64
Over 3.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Over 4.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9

	Liverpool	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	5.40
Corners conceded	4.20	5.30
Match total	10.80	10.70	9.89
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	100% 10/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.70
Opponent cards	2.30	2.70
Match total	4.00	4.40	3.64
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stuart Attwell 123 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93league 3.53

Red cards0.12league 0.11

Cards 5+42%league 39%

Fouls21.0league 21.8

Penalties0.19league 0.19

Home wins50%league 50%

Liverpool14 with this referee

Record11-2-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.4 Pens for · against3 · 1

W20 Apr 25A · Leicester1–02
W25 Aug 24H · Brentford2–02
W4 Apr 24H · Sheffield Utd3–10
W3 Dec 23H · Fulham4–30
W3 May 23H · Fulham1–00

Aston Villa14 with this referee

Record5-4-5 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.1 Pens for · against3 · 3 Reds1

L31 Aug 25H · Crystal Palace0–32
W10 May 25A · Bournemouth1–05
W2 Apr 25A · Brighton3–03
L1 Dec 24A · Chelsea0–32
D29 Sep 24A · Ipswich2–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.