Liverpool vs Fulham – 11 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 32 Sat, Apr 11 · 17:30 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 5th · 49 pts · 31 played WWLDL

2–0Full time

Fulham 11th · 44 pts · 31 played WWLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 69). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fulham. Liverpool had 21.2 days of rest, Fulham 21.1 and had to travel 286 km.

Away travel286 kmRest days21.2 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Liverpool58%

Draw21%

Fulham21%

Expected goals 2.18 – 1.27

Liverpool57%

Draw24%

Fulham19%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.97

Liverpool57%

Draw22%

Fulham21%

Expected goals 2.12 – 1.23

Liverpool49%

Draw23%

Fulham28%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.42

Liverpool56%

Draw23%

Fulham21%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.17

Over 2.5 67% Both score 64% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 200

Team strength

Liverpool

Fulham

85 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

85 AttackIn forecast 66

84 DefenceIn forecast 68

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Fulham

1.61 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.39

1.35 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.42

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.10

87% Scored inContext 77%

29% Clean sheetsContext 19%

15.68 ShotsContext 12.32

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.87

29% On target shareContext 30%

10.23 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

65% Box shareContext 68%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.86

11.06 Shots allowedContext 11.65

4.07 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.87

3.38 BlocksContext 3.58

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.85

66% Save rateContext 69%

60% PossessionIn forecast 52%

538 PassesContext 479

462 Accurate passesContext 401

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.85

9.68 FoulsContext 10.90

10.65 Fouls sufferedContext 9.39

1.58 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

16.20 ShotsContext 13.10

6.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

34% On target shareContext 28%

10.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

65% Box shareContext 72%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.44

12.60 Shots allowedContext 12.30

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.67 BlocksContext 3.80

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

72% Save rateContext 67%

53% PossessionIn forecast 53%

454 PassesContext 491

375 Accurate passesContext 411

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.84

12.00 FoulsContext 10.50

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool

Rest21.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fulham

Rest21.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel286 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Fulham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21.2Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Mar	21.1Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25G. Mamardashvili(G)

26A. Robertson 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 30J. Frimpong

17C. Jones 8D. Szoboszlai

73R. Ngumoha 7F. Wirtz 11Mohamed Salah

18C. Gakpo

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

33A. Robinson 3C. Bassey 5J. Andersen 21T. Castagne

17A. Iwobi 16S. Berge

14O. Bobb 24J. King 8H. Wilson

9Rodrigo Muniz

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fulham Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool+0.4 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Fulham+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 1.87points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 8-4-3
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 1.13

Fulham · Away 1.00points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 4-3-8
Scored: 1.07
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Liverpool	Fulham
Brighton	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Tottenham	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Wolves	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	W 3–0 H
West Ham	W 5–2 HW 2–0 A	L 0–1 HW 1–0 A
Nottingham Forest	W 1–0 AL 0–3 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Sunderland	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H
Manchester City	L 1–2 HL 0–3 A	L 0–3 AL 4–5 H
Newcastle	W 4–1 HW 3–2 A	L 1–2 A
Bournemouth	L 2–3 AW 4–2 H	L 1–3 A
Burnley	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A	W 3–1 HW 3–2 A
Arsenal	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	L 0–1 H
Leeds	D 0–0 HD 3–3 A	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H
Aston Villa	W 2–0 H	L 1–3 A
Brentford	L 2–3 A	W 3–1 H
Manchester United	L 1–2 H	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H
Chelsea	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Crystal Palace	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H
Everton	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A
Points	48 of 90 · 1.60 per game	43 of 90 · 1.43 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Liverpool wins4 draws2 Fulham wins

Goals per game1.89 – 1.67 Over 2.567% Both scored78% Clean sheets11% · 11%

4 Jan 2026Fulham2–2Liverpool
6 Apr 2025Fulham3–2Liverpool
14 Dec 2024Liverpool2–2Fulham
21 Apr 2024Fulham1–3Liverpool
3 Dec 2023Liverpool4–3Fulham
3 May 2023Liverpool1–0Fulham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.61	1.39
Conceded per game	1.35	1.42
Match goals	2.97	2.81	3.45
Over 1.5	81%	74%
Over 2.5	61%	58%	67%
Over 3.5	26%	29%
Both teams scored	65%	61%	64%
Clean sheets	29%	19%
Failed to score	13%	23%
Games	31	31

	Liverpool	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.30
Conceded per game	1.40	1.40
Match goals	3.20	2.70	3.45
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	67%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	64%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	6.17	4.71
Corners conceded	4.50	5.68
Match total	10.67	10.39	10.03
Over 8.5	80% 24/30	81% 25/31
Over 9.5	57% 17/30	68% 21/31
Over 10.5	47% 14/30	45% 14/31
Cards
Cards	1.61	2.10
Opponent cards	2.13	1.90
Match total	3.74	4.00	3.91
Over 3.5	48% 15/31	61% 19/31
Over 4.5	29% 9/31	48% 15/31

	Liverpool	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	6.10	5.10
Corners conceded	4.00	5.60
Match total	10.10	10.70	10.03
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.00
Opponent cards	1.70	2.50
Match total	3.40	4.50	3.91
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.81league 3.77

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+37%league 39%

Fouls21.1league 21.4

Penalties0.24league 0.22

Home wins36%league 42%

Liverpool30 with this referee

Record13-14-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2 Pens for · against5 · 1 Reds1

W22 Feb 26A · Nottingham Forest1–00
D8 Jan 26A · Arsenal0–02
D6 Dec 25A · Leeds3–33
L4 Oct 25A · Chelsea1–22
W15 Aug 25H · Bournemouth4–21

Fulham11 with this referee

Record3-1-7 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds1

W22 Dec 25H · Nottingham Forest1–05
L18 Oct 25H · Arsenal0–10
L20 Apr 25H · Chelsea1–21
L26 Jan 25H · Manchester United0–10
L11 May 24H · Manchester City0–43

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.