Liverpool vs Leeds – 1 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 19 Thu, Jan 1 · 17:30 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 4th · 32 pts · 18 played DDWWW

0–0Full time

Leeds 16th · 20 pts · 18 played WDDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were clear favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 65). Liverpool had 5.1 days of rest, Leeds 4.1 and had to travel 104 km.

Away travel104 kmRest days5.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Liverpool66%

Draw20%

Leeds14%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.95

Liverpool64%

Draw22%

Leeds15%

Expected goals 2.03 – 0.88

Liverpool66%

Draw20%

Leeds14%

Expected goals 2.24 – 0.95

Liverpool59%

Draw22%

Leeds19%

Expected goals 2.01 – 1.06

Liverpool64%

Draw21%

Leeds15%

Expected goals 2.04 – 0.88

Over 2.5 62% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 145

Team strength

Liverpool

Leeds

88 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

84 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

85 AttackIn forecast 69

84 DefenceIn forecast 77

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Leeds

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.39

1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

89% Scored inContext 72%

28% Clean sheetsContext 11%

15.11 ShotsContext 13.28

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.17

29% On target shareContext 31%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.89

67% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.53 OffsidesContext 2.07

11.39 Shots allowedContext 11.22

4.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.06

3.41 BlocksContext 3.44

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.53

63% Save rateContext 63%

61% PossessionIn forecast 47%

542 PassesContext 412

466 Accurate passesContext 335

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.76

9.72 FoulsContext 10.33

10.83 Fouls sufferedContext 11.83

1.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

80% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.40 ShotsContext 13.50

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

31% On target shareContext 35%

10.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

67% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.33

11.20 Shots allowedContext 12.30

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.70 BlocksContext 3.60

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

63% Save rateContext 60%

60% PossessionIn forecast 46%

560 PassesContext 398

489 Accurate passesContext 321

87% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.80

9.70 FoulsContext 10.60

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Leeds

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel104 km247 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Dec	4.1Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	104 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	573 km	247 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

26A. Robertson 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 12C. Bradley

17C. Jones 38R. Gravenberch

7F. Wirtz 8D. Szoboszlai 30J. Frimpong

22H. Ekitiké

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Lucas Perri(G)

5P. Struijk 15J. Bijol 23S. Bornauw

3G. Gudmundsson 4E. Ampadu 44I. Gruev 18A. Stach 24J. Justin

11B. Aaronson 14L. Nmecha

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Leeds Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Leeds-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 2.11points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 6-1-2
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.11

Leeds · Away 0.56points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-6
Scored: 0.89
Conceded: 2.22

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Liverpool	Leeds
Wolves	W 2–1 H	W 3–1 A
Tottenham	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 H
Brighton	W 2–0 H	L 0–3 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
West Ham	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 H
Nottingham Forest	L 0–3 H	L 1–3 A
Manchester City	L 0–3 A	L 2–3 A
Aston Villa	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 H
Brentford	L 2–3 A	D 1–1 A
Chelsea	L 1–2 A	W 3–1 H
Crystal Palace	L 1–2 A	W 4–1 H
Everton	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
Burnley	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 A
Arsenal	W 1–0 H	L 0–5 A
Newcastle	W 3–2 A	D 0–0 H
Bournemouth	W 4–2 H	D 2–2 H
Points	31 of 48 · 1.94 per game	19 of 48 · 1.19 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Liverpool wins2 draws1 Leeds wins

Goals per game3.43 – 1.43 Over 2.586% Both scored71% Clean sheets29% · 0%

6 Dec 2025Leeds3–3Liverpool
17 Apr 2023Leeds1–6Liverpool
29 Oct 2022Liverpool1–2Leeds
23 Feb 2022Liverpool6–0Leeds
12 Sep 2021Leeds0–3Liverpool
19 Apr 2021Leeds1–1Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.39
Conceded per game	1.44	1.78
Match goals	3.11	3.17	3.20
Over 1.5	89%	83%
Over 2.5	67%	67%	62%
Over 3.5	22%	44%
Both teams scored	61%	67%	55%
Clean sheets	28%	11%
Failed to score	11%	28%
Games	18	18

	Liverpool	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.80
Conceded per game	1.50	1.90
Match goals	3.10	3.70	3.20
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	62%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	90%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	4.88
Corners conceded	4.72	3.56
Match total	9.83	8.44	9.90
Over 8.5	72% 13/18	56% 9/16
Over 9.5	44% 8/18	38% 6/16
Over 10.5	33% 6/18	25% 4/16
Cards
Cards	1.83	1.50
Opponent cards	2.17	1.67
Match total	4.00	3.17	3.86
Over 3.5	56% 10/18	39% 7/18
Over 4.5	39% 7/18	28% 5/18

	Liverpool	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	5.00
Corners conceded	4.60	4.33
Match total	10.20	9.33	9.90
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.60
Opponent cards	2.10	1.80
Match total	3.80	3.40	3.86
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 145 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.88league 3.71

Red cards0.13league 0.11

Cards 5+37%league 38%

Fouls21.8league 21.5

Penalties0.23league 0.20

Home wins40%league 47%

Liverpool19 with this referee

Record11-3-5 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7 Pens for · against2 · 1

L9 Nov 25A · Manchester City0–34
L27 Sep 25A · Crystal Palace1–23
W31 Aug 25H · Arsenal1–02
L6 Apr 25A · Fulham2–30
W26 Feb 25H · Newcastle2–00

Leeds11 with this referee

Record4-0-7 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.2 Pens for · against2 · 3 Reds1

W18 Aug 25H · Everton1–00
W17 Sep 23A · Millwall3–00
L30 Apr 23A · Bournemouth1–40
L16 Oct 22H · Arsenal0–10
L8 May 22A · Arsenal1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.