Liverpool vs Wolves – 27 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 18 Sat, Dec 27 · 15:00 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 6th · 29 pts · 17 played WDDWW

2–1Full time

Wolves 20th · 2 pts · 17 played LLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were clear favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 37). Liverpool usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Liverpool had 6.9 days of rest, Wolves 7 and had to travel 108 km.

Away travel108 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Liverpool81%

Draw13%

Wolves6%

Expected goals 2.87 – 0.73

Liverpool79%

Draw14%

Wolves7%

Expected goals 2.64 – 0.68

Liverpool81%

Draw13%

Wolves6%

Expected goals 2.89 – 0.72

Liverpool75%

Draw16%

Wolves9%

Expected goals 2.56 – 0.82

Liverpool78%

Draw15%

Wolves7%

Expected goals 2.63 – 0.69

Over 2.5 70% Both score 49% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

No weather data yet

RefereeSimon Hooper

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 135

Team strength

Liverpool

Wolves

88 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

84 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

85 AttackIn forecast 41

84 DefenceIn forecast 46

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Wolves

1.65 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.53

1.47 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.18

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

88% Scored inContext 41%

29% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.18 ShotsContext 8.65

4.35 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.94

29% On target shareContext 32%

9.94 Shots in the boxContext 5.81

66% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 6%

2.64 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.53 Shots allowedContext 13.65

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88

3.56 BlocksContext 4.87

2.73 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

62% Save rateContext 61%

61% PossessionIn forecast 46%

535 PassesContext 388

460 Accurate passesContext 310

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.64

10.00 FoulsContext 14.41

10.71 Fouls sufferedContext 10.06

1.94 Yellow cardsContext 2.18

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.40

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.64

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext -0.48

80% Scored inContext 30%

40% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.70 ShotsContext 8.10

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

33% On target shareContext 30%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 5.33

65% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 5%

2.88 OffsidesContext 1.88

11.10 Shots allowedContext 14.40

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

3.80 BlocksContext 5.33

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

63% Save rateContext 61%

57% PossessionIn forecast 45%

525 PassesContext 378

456 Accurate passesContext 303

87% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.61

10.70 FoulsContext 14.90

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Wolves

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel108 km363 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Wolves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec	7Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	108 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	573 km	363 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	5.1	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 30J. Frimpong

17C. Jones 38R. Gravenberch

7F. Wirtz 10A. Mac Allister 14F. Chiesa

22H. Ekitiké

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1José Sá(G)

37L. Krejčí 4S. Bueno 15Y. Mosquera

3Hugo Bueno 8João Gomes 7André 2M. Doherty

11H. Hwang 36Mateus Mané

14T. Arokodare

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Scores -0.13 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Wolves Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool-0.5 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Wolves+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 2.00points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 5-1-2
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 1.13

Wolves · Away 0.13points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-7
Scored: 0.25
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Liverpool	Wolves
Tottenham	W 2–1 A	D 1–1 A
Brighton	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 H
Leeds	D 3–3 A	L 1–3 H
Sunderland	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Nottingham Forest	L 0–3 H	L 0–1 H
Manchester City	L 0–3 A	L 0–4 H
Aston Villa	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 A
Brentford	L 2–3 A	L 0–2 H
Manchester United	L 1–2 H	L 1–4 H
Chelsea	L 1–2 A	L 0–3 A
Crystal Palace	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 H
Everton	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 H
Burnley	W 1–0 A	L 2–3 H
Arsenal	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 A
Newcastle	W 3–2 A	L 0–1 A
Bournemouth	W 4–2 H	L 0–1 A
Points	26 of 48 · 1.63 per game	2 of 48 · 0.13 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

9 Liverpool wins0 draws1 Wolves wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.70 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets50% · 10%

16 Feb 2025Liverpool2–1Wolves
28 Sep 2024Wolves1–2Liverpool
19 May 2024Liverpool2–0Wolves
16 Sep 2023Wolves1–3Liverpool
1 Mar 2023Liverpool2–0Wolves
4 Feb 2023Wolves3–0Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.65	0.53
Conceded per game	1.47	2.18
Match goals	3.12	2.71	3.60
Over 1.5	88%	76%
Over 2.5	65%	47%	70%
Over 3.5	24%	29%
Both teams scored	59%	41%	49%
Clean sheets	29%	0%
Failed to score	12%	59%
Games	17	17

	Liverpool	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.40
Conceded per game	1.60	2.30
Match goals	3.10	2.70	3.60
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	70%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	49%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	20%	70%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	5.06	2.87
Corners conceded	4.76	6.67
Match total	9.82	9.54	9.85
Over 8.5	71% 12/17	67% 10/15
Over 9.5	41% 7/17	60% 9/15
Over 10.5	35% 6/17	40% 6/15
Cards
Cards	1.94	2.29
Opponent cards	2.24	1.59
Match total	4.18	3.88	3.87
Over 3.5	59% 10/17	65% 11/17
Over 4.5	41% 7/17	47% 8/17

	Liverpool	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	2.11
Corners conceded	4.30	6.44
Match total	9.70	8.55	9.85
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.40
Opponent cards	2.40	1.30
Match total	4.20	3.70	3.87
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simon Hooper 135 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 3.72

Red cards0.07league 0.12

Cards 5+37%league 38%

Fouls21.7league 21.7

Penalties0.16league 0.20

Home wins49%league 48%

Liverpool12 with this referee

Record7-1-4 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds2

L25 Oct 25A · Brentford2–32
W25 Aug 25A · Newcastle3–23
L4 May 25A · Chelsea1–32
W16 Feb 25H · Wolves2–12
W5 Oct 24A · Crystal Palace1–02

Wolves12 with this referee

Record1-2-9 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1

L16 Feb 25A · Liverpool1–22
L20 Jan 25A · Chelsea1–32
L14 Dec 24H · Ipswich1–22
D31 Aug 24A · Nottingham Forest1–14
L10 Feb 24H · Brentford0–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.