Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, May 22 · 16:00 Soeverein Stadion, Lommel
Lommel United 10th · 11 pts · 8 played
First leg1–0 VS— Compare
Cercle Brugge 17th · 3 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel146 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Lommel United—%
Draw—%
Cercle Brugge—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Lommel)

Forecast from 7 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lommel United and Cercle Brugge. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Lommel UnitedCercle Brugge
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
36 Current StrengthIn forecast 21
32 AttackIn forecast 24
41 DefenceIn forecast 28
47 Form indexContext 6
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lommel United

Attack—
Defense risk—

Cercle Brugge

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lommel UnitedCercle Brugge
1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13
1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.74
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
+0.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.61
50% Scored inContext 63%
38% Clean sheetsContext 0%
10.75 ShotsContext 14.13
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
28% On target shareContext 28%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.71
66% Box shareContext 70%
11% ConversionContext 8%
2.33 OffsidesContext 1.50
19.25 Shots allowedContext 12.63
4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38
6.50 BlocksContext 3.88
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38
76% Save rateContext 54%
44% PossessionIn forecast 45%
407 PassesContext 370
339 Accurate passesContext 291
83% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.61
7.00 FoulsContext 12.38
10.75 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.63
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.43
50% Scored inContext 70%
40% Clean sheetsContext 0%
10.50 ShotsContext 13.80
3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
29% On target shareContext 30%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.11
66% Box shareContext 69%
11% ConversionContext 9%
2.33 OffsidesContext 1.90
18.80 Shots allowedContext 12.80
4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
5.80 BlocksContext 3.90
3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
75% Save rateContext 52%
45% PossessionIn forecast 46%
403 PassesContext 370
331 Accurate passesContext 292
82% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.64
7.20 FoulsContext 12.30
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lommel United
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km64 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • W9 OctA · SK Beveren3–11.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · KV Mechelen0–01.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Union St. Gilloise0–50.6 xPts
  • L4 SepH · Club Brugge KV0–11.0 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Cercle Brugge1–01.2 xPts
Cercle Brugge
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel146 km323 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 6 · 1 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -5.5 vs expected
  • L10 OctH · Anderlecht1–21.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Charleroi2–30.8 xPts
  • D12 SepA · OH Leuven1–11.5 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Gent0–31.3 xPts
  • L29 AugH · Lommel United0–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lommel United Cercle Brugge
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 15 May7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 15 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km146 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways64 km323 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one——

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lommel United Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SK Beveren (A) 3–1, 9 Oct
23M. Pieklak(G)
4S. Adewoye 8Nicolas Rommens 3T. Eyoma 2J. van Duiven
44I. Dada-Mascoll 15Lucas Schoofs
11S. Appuah 10Tom Reyners 7J. Talvitie
9D. Konadu
Cercle Brugge Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Anderlecht (H) 1–2, 10 Oct
1G. Coucke(G)
12Valy Konaté 24Geoffrey Kondo 5Emmanuel Kakou 15G. Magnée
28H. Van der Bruggen 18L. Le Roux
30B. Akinsola 20A. Manneh 11C. Herrmann
9S. Ngoura

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lommel United Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Cercle Brugge Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lommel United · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.50
Cercle Brugge · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentLommel UnitedCercle Brugge
Club Brugge KV L 0–1 H L 0–1 A
Charleroi L 0–1 H L 2–3 A
St. Truiden D 1–1 A D 3–3 H
Points1 of 9 · 0.33 per game1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Lommel United wins0 draws0 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%
  • 29 Aug 2026Cercle Brugge0–1Lommel United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Lommel UnitedCercle BruggeForecast
Scored per game 1.131.13
Conceded per game 1.132.00
Match goals 2.253.13
Over 1.5 50%75%
Over 2.5 38%63%
Over 3.5 38%38%
Both teams scored 25%63%
Clean sheets 38%0%
Failed to score 50%38%
Games88
Lommel UnitedCercle BruggeForecast
Scored per game 1.131.30
Conceded per game 1.132.10
Match goals 2.253.40
Over 1.5 50%80%
Over 2.5 38%70%
Over 3.5 38%50%
Both teams scored 25%70%
Clean sheets 38%0%
Failed to score 50%30%
Games810

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Lommel UnitedCercle BruggeLeague
Corners
Corners won3.507.29
Corners conceded7.884.57
Match total11.3811.8610.01
Over 8.588% 7/871% 5/7
Over 9.575% 6/871% 5/7
Over 10.563% 5/871% 5/7
Cards
Cards1.001.25
Opponent cards1.631.63
Match total2.632.883.36
Over 3.525% 2/825% 2/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
Lommel UnitedCercle BruggeLeague
Corners
Corners won3.606.67
Corners conceded7.605.00
Match total11.2011.6710.01
Over 8.590% 9/1078% 7/9
Over 9.580% 8/1078% 7/9
Over 10.560% 6/1078% 7/9
Cards
Cards1.201.20
Opponent cards1.801.50
Match total3.002.703.36
Over 3.540% 4/1020% 2/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Lommel United7 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 76-90
Cercle Brugge8 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 46-60
1 2 61-75
4 4 76-90
Lommel United9 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
0-15
3 16-30
1 3 31-45
4 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 1 76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
1 2 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 3 31-45
5 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Lommel United Cercle Brugge May 2216:00 OH Leuven Gent May 2216:00 Club Brugge KV Zulte Waregem May 2216:00 Kortrijk St. Truiden May 2216:00 SK Beveren Standard Liege May 2216:00 Antwerp KVC Westerlo May 2216:00 Genk KV Mechelen May 2216:00 Union St. Gilloise Charleroi May 2216:00 RAAL La Louvière Anderlecht May 2216:00