Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 46). Lyon usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Lyon had 5.1 days of rest, FC Basel 1893 20.9 and had to travel 282 km.
Away travel282 kmRest days5.1 · 20.9Matches / 14d1 · 0
Lyon52%
Draw25%
FC Basel 189323%
Lyon51%
Draw25%
FC Basel 189323%
Lyon53%
Draw25%
FC Basel 189323%
Lyon45%
Draw26%
FC Basel 189329%
Lyon51%
Draw26%
FC Basel 189324%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · LithuaniaManfredas Lukjancukas
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 21
Team strength
Lyon
FC Basel 1893
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
41
55
AttackIn forecast
36
56
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Basel 1893
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonFC Basel 1893
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
100%
Scored inContext
100%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.00
ShotsContext
13.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
39%
On target shareContext
31%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
73%
Box shareContext
73%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
—
OffsidesContext
—
10.50
Shots allowedContext
22.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.00
BlocksContext
9.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
100%
Save rateContext
83%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
613
PassesContext
354
541
Accurate passesContext
279
88%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.12
Team ratingContext
7.06
11.50
FoulsContext
17.50
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
—
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
83%
70%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
13.60
ShotsContext
13.00
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
35%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
71%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.30
Shots allowedContext
16.00
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.83
4.67
BlocksContext
4.83
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.17
77%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
511
PassesContext
413
446
Accurate passesContext
339
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.60
FoulsContext
14.83
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.33
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.17
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km586 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Basel 1893
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel282 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
FC Basel 1893 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 20.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 282 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 586 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
39Mathys de Carvalho
6F. Tessmann
11M. Fofana
8C. Tolisso
44Khalis Merah
20M. Satriano
FC Basel 1893
Confirmed XI
1M. Hitz(G)
31D. Schmid
24F. Daniliuc
26A. Barišić
3N. Vouilloz
7P. Otele
22L. Leroy
5A. Silu
19M. Šotiček
10X. Shaqiri
23A. Ajeti
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Basel 1893
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- FC Basel 1893+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
FC Basel 1893 · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | FC Basel 1893 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Lyon | FC Basel 1893 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | FC Basel 1893 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 9.00 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.50 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Lyon | FC Basel 1893 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 8.50 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.67 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Manfredas Lukjancukas Lithuania · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 4.08
Red cards0.33league 0.14
Cards 5+62%league 42%
Fouls22.0league 25.7
Penalties0.38league 0.36
Home wins52%league 42%
LyonNo previous matches with this referee.
FC Basel 1893No previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
FC Basel 18932 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
FC Basel 18936 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures UEFA Europa League
View all fixtures →Lyon
FC Basel 1893
20
SC Braga
FK Crvena Zvezda
20
Brann
Rangers
30
GO Ahead Eagles
Aston Villa
21
FCSB
Bologna
12
Red Bull Salzburg
Ferencvarosi TC
23
Fenerbahce
VfB Stuttgart
10
Genk
Real Betis
00
Feyenoord
Panathinaikos
31
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
20
Lille
PAOK
34
SC Freiburg
Utrecht
20
Celtic
Sturm Graz
21
Malmo FF
Dinamo Zagreb
11
AS Roma
Plzen
12
Celta Vigo
Nice
21
BSC Young Boys
Ludogorets
32
Maccabi Tel Aviv
FC Midtjylland
03