Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 58). Absences weigh more on Lyon. Lyon had 4.2 days of rest, PAOK 7.1 and had to travel 1,560 km.
Away travel1,560 kmRest days4.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
Lyon50%
Draw24%
PAOK27%
Lyon48%
Draw26%
PAOK26%
Lyon51%
Draw23%
PAOK25%
Lyon42%
Draw25%
PAOK34%
Lyon49%
Draw25%
PAOK27%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 43
Team strength
Lyon
PAOK
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
55
AttackIn forecast
45
56
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPAOK
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonPAOK
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.14
0.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
2.16
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
86%
Scored inContext
86%
71%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
14.29
ShotsContext
13.71
5.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.14
37%
On target shareContext
45%
9.86
Shots in the boxContext
10.71
68%
Box shareContext
78%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.43
Shots allowedContext
12.86
3.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
2.33
BlocksContext
3.57
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
90%
Save rateContext
75%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
602
PassesContext
406
534
Accurate passesContext
335
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.71
FoulsContext
12.00
11.57
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
2.33
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
80%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.60
ShotsContext
15.80
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
43%
On target shareContext
41%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
69%
Box shareContext
73%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.63
8.60
Shots allowedContext
8.10
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.40
3.33
BlocksContext
3.38
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.78
81%
Save rateContext
73%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
531
PassesContext
480
465
Accurate passesContext
400
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.04
Team ratingContext
7.08
12.00
FoulsContext
12.00
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,228 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
PAOK
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,560 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
PAOK |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,560 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,228 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 20.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
40R. Descamps(G)
21R. Kluivert
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
23T. Morton
39Mathys de Carvalho
17Afonso Moreira
44Khalis Merah
7A. Karabec
45Rémi Himbert
PAOK
Confirmed XI
99A. Tsiftsis(G)
21A. Baba
5G. Michailidis
16T. Kędziora
3J. Kenny
8S. Meïté
27M. Ozdoev
11Taison
65G. Konstantelias
14A. Živković
7G. Giakoumakis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PAOK
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-1.6 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- PAOK+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
PAOK · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | PAOK |
|---|---|---|
| BSC Young Boys | W 1–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv | W 6–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | PAOK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.43 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 3.57 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 57% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 57% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 71% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Lyon | PAOK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.57 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 57% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 57% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 14% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | PAOK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.17 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 6.34 | 10.66 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 4.72 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Lyon | PAOK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.14 | 6.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.14 | 10.44 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.20 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 4.13
Red cards0.21league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 42%
Fouls21.9league 24.2
Penalties0.30league 0.36
Home wins49%league 51%
LyonNo previous matches with this referee.
PAOKNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon7 games · scored 14 · conceded 3
5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
PAOK7 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 23 · conceded 6
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
7
3
31-45
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
PAOK10 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
8
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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