Maccabi Tel Aviv
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Maccabi Tel Aviv25.9%fair odds 3.86
Draw25.6%fair odds 3.91
FC Midtjylland48.5%fair odds 2.06
Expected goals1.15 – 1.65total 2.80
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Midtjylland
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Maccabi Tel Aviv ↓ · FC Midtjylland → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Maccabi Tel Aviv goals, columns FC Midtjylland goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.24
- 1–29.5%10.50
- 0–19.4%10.61
- 0–28.3%12.06
- 0–06.7%14.96
- 2–16.6%15.10
- 1–06.4%15.71
- 2–25.5%18.28
- 1–35.2%19.06
- 0–34.6%21.89
Winning margin
3.2%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 3+
fair 31.05
7.2%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 2
fair 13.84
15.4%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 1
fair 6.47
25.6%
Draw
fair 3.91
22.5%
FC Midtjylland by 1
fair 4.45
15.0%
FC Midtjylland by 2
fair 6.69
11.1%
FC Midtjylland by 3+
fair 9.04
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Maccabi Tel Aviv goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
FC Midtjylland goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Tel Aviv win | 25.9% | 25.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.0% | -0.4 pp |
| FC Midtjylland win | 48.5% | 48.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 51.6% | +1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.8% | 54.7% | +1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1.15 | 1.12 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals FC Midtjylland | 1.65 | 1.62 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win25.9%3.86
- Draw25.6%3.91
- FC Midtjylland win48.5%2.06
- Double chance Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw51.5%1.94
- Double chance Maccabi Tel Aviv or FC Midtjylland74.4%1.34
- Double chance FC Midtjylland or draw74.1%1.35
- Draw no bet Maccabi Tel Aviv34.8%2.87
- Draw no bet FC Midtjylland65.2%1.53
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.5%1.29
- Over 2.553.1%1.88
- Over 3.530.8%3.24
- Over 4.515.2%6.56
- Under 1.522.5%4.45
- Under 2.546.9%2.13
- Under 3.569.2%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes55.8%1.79
- No44.2%2.26
- Yes and over 2.543.7%2.29
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win and yes13.4%7.45
- Draw and yes18.9%5.29
- FC Midtjylland win and yes23.5%4.26
Team goals
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 0.568.3%1.46
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 1.531.9%3.14
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 2.511.0%9.13
- FC Midtjylland over 0.580.8%1.24
- FC Midtjylland over 1.549.2%2.03
- FC Midtjylland over 2.523.0%4.34
- Maccabi Tel Aviv clean sheet19.2%5.22
- FC Midtjylland clean sheet31.7%3.15
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win to nil12.5%8.02
- FC Midtjylland win to nil25.0%4.00
Handicap
- Maccabi Tel Aviv −1.510.4%9.57
- Maccabi Tel Aviv −2.53.2%31.05
- FC Midtjylland +1.589.6%1.12
- FC Midtjylland +2.596.8%1.03
- FC Midtjylland −1.526.0%3.84
- Maccabi Tel Aviv +1.574.0%1.35
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored44
Favourite won52.3%
Avg chance given to result39.0%
1X2 Brier0.602
Over 2.5 called right45.5%
BTTS called right47.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.8% | 60.0% |
| 40–50% | 21 | 44.3% | 38.1% |
| 50–60% | 14 | 54.5% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.7% | 33.3% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 26 of 44 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6081 | 0.6224 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.8% | 38.6% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 57.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 26 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 44 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.