UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 23 · 20:00 TSC Arena, Bačka Topola
Maccabi Tel Aviv 28th · 1 pts · 2 played
0–3Full time
FC Midtjylland 5th · 6 pts · 2 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

FC Midtjylland were slight favourites.

FC Midtjylland were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 21). Maccabi Tel Aviv had 21 days of rest, FC Midtjylland 21 and had to travel 1,365 km.

Away travel1,365 kmRest days21 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Maccabi Tel Aviv26%
Draw26%
FC Midtjylland49%
Expected goals 1.15 – 1.65
Maccabi Tel Aviv26%
Draw26%
FC Midtjylland48%
Expected goals 1.12 – 1.60
Maccabi Tel Aviv26%
Draw26%
FC Midtjylland48%
Expected goals 1.14 – 1.64
Maccabi Tel Aviv20%
Draw24%
FC Midtjylland56%
Expected goals 1.02 – 1.85
Maccabi Tel Aviv26%
Draw26%
FC Midtjylland48%
Expected goals 1.12 – 1.62
Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bačka Topola)

No weather data yet

RefereeGeorgi Kabakov
  • Cards per match 5.1
  • Penalties per match 0.13
  • Matches 24

Team strength

Maccabi Tel AvivFC Midtjylland
21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49
19 Current StrengthIn forecast 47
19 AttackIn forecast 37
20 DefenceIn forecast 42
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Midtjylland

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Maccabi Tel AvivFC Midtjylland
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.33
1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
-0.61 Goals minus xGContext +1.17
50% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
10.00 ShotsContext 7.50
3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
35% On target shareContext 67%
5.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.00
57% Box shareContext 66%
5% ConversionContext 33%
1.50 OffsidesContext 3.00
12.00 Shots allowedContext 16.50
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
— BlocksContext 4.00
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50
60% Save rateContext 85%
48% PossessionIn forecast 47%
417 PassesContext 342
360 Accurate passesContext 271
86% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.78 Team ratingContext 7.06
13.00 FoulsContext 15.50
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
0.86 xGVia Att/Def —
1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.24 Goals minus xGContext —
60% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
9.50 ShotsContext 14.10
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20
42% On target shareContext 44%
5.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.89
62% Box shareContext 62%
9% ConversionContext 17%
1.83 OffsidesContext 2.25
10.67 Shots allowedContext 11.90
3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89
4.00 BlocksContext 3.70
2.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
57% Save rateContext 82%
48% PossessionIn forecast 50%
404 PassesContext 409
342 Accurate passesContext 339
85% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.73 Team ratingContext 7.05
11.17 FoulsContext 12.40
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Maccabi Tel Aviv
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
FC Midtjylland
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,365 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Maccabi Tel Aviv FC Midtjylland
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium—1,365 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one1413.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Maccabi Tel Aviv Confirmed XI
4-4-2
90R. Mishpati(G)
3R. Revivo 5M. Camara 13R. Shlomo 6T. Asante
10K. Andrade 30I. Noy 28I. Sissokho 77O. Davida
19E. Madmon 42D. Peretz
+1 more reported missing outside this XI
FC Midtjylland Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
16E. Ólafsson(G)
22M. Bech 6M. Erlić 4O. Diao
55V. Bak Jensen 21D. Castillo 8P. Billing 20V. Byskov
10G. Cho 11D. Osorio
7F. Gluda Djú
+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Maccabi Tel Aviv Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Midtjylland Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Maccabi Tel Aviv-0.1 pp
  • Draw-0.1 pp
  • FC Midtjylland+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Maccabi Tel Aviv · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
3.00
FC Midtjylland · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Maccabi Tel Aviv wins0 draws1 FC Midtjylland wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%
  • 3 Oct 2024Maccabi Tel Aviv0–2FC Midtjylland

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Maccabi Tel AvivFC MidtjyllandForecast
Scored per game 0.502.50
Conceded per game 1.501.00
Match goals 2.003.50 2.80
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%50% 53%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 50%50% 56%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
Maccabi Tel AvivFC MidtjyllandForecast
Scored per game 0.502.50
Conceded per game 1.501.00
Match goals 2.003.50 2.80
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%50% 53%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 50%50% 56%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Maccabi Tel AvivFC MidtjyllandLeague
Corners
Corners won3.506.00
Corners conceded6.006.50
Match total9.5012.508.98
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards2.002.50
Opponent cards1.002.50
Match total3.005.004.20
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Maccabi Tel AvivFC MidtjyllandLeague
Corners
Corners won5.005.50
Corners conceded5.674.10
Match total10.679.608.98
Over 8.567% 4/650% 5/10
Over 9.567% 4/640% 4/10
Over 10.567% 4/630% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.802.10
Opponent cards2.301.90
Match total4.104.004.20
Over 3.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 4.540% 4/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Georgi Kabakov 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.88league 4.09
Red cards0.21league 0.11
Cards 5+54%league 39%
Fouls20.6league 25.2
Penalties0.13league 0.36
Home wins29%league 45%
Maccabi Tel Aviv

No previous matches with this referee.

FC Midtjylland

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Maccabi Tel Aviv2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
1 0-15
2 16-30
31-45
46-60
1 61-75
76-90
FC Midtjylland2 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
2 1 76-90
Maccabi Tel Aviv10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
3 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 4 31-45
1 1 46-60
2 4 61-75
3 1 76-90
FC Midtjylland10 games · scored 24 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
5 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
6 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
7 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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