Malmo FF
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Malmo FF27.4%fair odds 3.64
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.78
Dinamo Zagreb46.1%fair odds 2.17
Expected goals1.15 – 1.55total 2.70
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Dinamo Zagreb
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Malmo FF ↓ · Dinamo Zagreb → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Malmo FF goals, columns Dinamo Zagreb goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.93
- 0–19.8%10.18
- 1–29.3%10.76
- 0–28.1%12.32
- 0–07.4%13.57
- 1–07.1%14.13
- 2–16.9%14.58
- 2–25.3%18.78
- 1–34.8%20.79
- 2–04.4%22.64
Winning margin
3.4%
Malmo FF by 3+
fair 29.02
7.7%
Malmo FF by 2
fair 13.00
16.3%
Malmo FF by 1
fair 6.14
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.78
22.3%
Dinamo Zagreb by 1
fair 4.48
14.1%
Dinamo Zagreb by 2
fair 7.08
9.6%
Dinamo Zagreb by 3+
fair 10.39
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Malmo FF goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Dinamo Zagreb goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF win | 27.4% | 27.2% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Dinamo Zagreb win | 46.1% | 46.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.6% | 50.2% | +0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.4% | 54.0% | +0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Malmo FF | 1.15 | 1.13 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Dinamo Zagreb | 1.55 | 1.55 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Malmo FF win27.4%3.64
- Draw26.5%3.78
- Dinamo Zagreb win46.1%2.17
- Double chance Malmo FF or draw53.9%1.85
- Double chance Malmo FF or Dinamo Zagreb73.5%1.36
- Double chance Dinamo Zagreb or draw72.6%1.38
- Draw no bet Malmo FF37.3%2.68
- Draw no bet Dinamo Zagreb62.7%1.60
Goals
- Over 0.592.6%1.08
- Over 1.575.7%1.32
- Over 2.550.6%1.98
- Over 3.528.5%3.50
- Over 4.513.7%7.31
- Under 1.524.3%4.12
- Under 2.549.4%2.02
- Under 3.571.5%1.40
Both teams to score
- Yes54.4%1.84
- No45.6%2.19
- Yes and over 2.541.8%2.39
- Malmo FF win and yes13.6%7.33
- Draw and yes19.1%5.23
- Dinamo Zagreb win and yes21.6%4.62
Team goals
- Malmo FF over 0.568.2%1.47
- Malmo FF over 1.531.8%3.15
- Malmo FF over 2.510.9%9.19
- Dinamo Zagreb over 0.578.8%1.27
- Dinamo Zagreb over 1.546.0%2.18
- Dinamo Zagreb over 2.520.4%4.89
- Malmo FF clean sheet21.2%4.72
- Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet31.8%3.14
- Malmo FF win to nil13.8%7.25
- Dinamo Zagreb win to nil24.4%4.09
Handicap
- Malmo FF −1.511.1%8.98
- Malmo FF −2.53.4%29.02
- Dinamo Zagreb +1.588.9%1.13
- Dinamo Zagreb +2.596.6%1.04
- Dinamo Zagreb −1.523.8%4.21
- Malmo FF +1.576.2%1.31
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored44
Favourite won52.3%
Avg chance given to result39.0%
1X2 Brier0.602
Over 2.5 called right45.5%
BTTS called right47.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.8% | 60.0% |
| 40–50% | 21 | 44.3% | 38.1% |
| 50–60% | 14 | 54.5% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.7% | 33.3% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 26 of 44 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6081 | 0.6224 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.8% | 38.6% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 57.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 26 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 44 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.