Malmo FF
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Dinamo Zagreb were slight favourites.
Dinamo Zagreb were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 30). Absences weigh more on Malmo FF. Malmo FF had 21.1 days of rest, Dinamo Zagreb 21 and had to travel 1,108 km.
Away travel1,108 kmRest days21.1 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Malmo FF27%
Draw26%
Dinamo Zagreb46%
Malmo FF28%
Draw27%
Dinamo Zagreb45%
Malmo FF28%
Draw26%
Dinamo Zagreb45%
Malmo FF22%
Draw25%
Dinamo Zagreb54%
Malmo FF27%
Draw27%
Dinamo Zagreb46%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malmö)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 94
Team strength
Malmo FF
Dinamo Zagreb
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
24
AttackIn forecast
33
20
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDinamo Zagreb
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Malmo FFDinamo Zagreb
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
2.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.42
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+1.90
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.00
ShotsContext
8.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
47%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
50%
Box shareContext
70%
6%
ConversionContext
35%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
17.50
Shots allowedContext
8.50
8.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.50
BlocksContext
1.50
5.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
65%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
450
PassesContext
437
376
Accurate passesContext
367
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.56
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.00
FoulsContext
9.00
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.50
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
—
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.89
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.83
ShotsContext
9.20
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
38%
On target shareContext
35%
4.25
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
59%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
20%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.00
BlocksContext
3.70
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
63%
Save rateContext
56%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
469
PassesContext
358
394
Accurate passesContext
288
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.58
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.00
FoulsContext
10.20
14.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Malmo FF
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dinamo Zagreb
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,108 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Malmo FF |
Dinamo Zagreb |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct | 21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,108 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Malmo FF
Confirmed XI
33M. Ellborg(G)
25Gabriel Busanello
19C. Rösler
18P. Jansson
17J. Stryger Larsen
7O. Rosengren
6C. Lewicki
40K. Busuladžić
29S. Hakšabanović
11E. Ekong
38A. Bolin
Dinamo Zagreb
Confirmed XI
33I. Nevistić(G)
3B. Goda
26S. McKenna
36Sergi Domínguez
25Moris Valinčić
27J. Mišić
11A. Hoxha
8M. Zajc
77D. Ljubičić
21M. Lisica
9D. Beljo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Malmo FF
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Dinamo Zagreb
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Malmo FF-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dinamo Zagreb+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Malmo FF · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Dinamo Zagreb · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Malmo FF | Dinamo Zagreb | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Malmo FF | Dinamo Zagreb | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Malmo FF | Dinamo Zagreb | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 9.00 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Malmo FF | Dinamo Zagreb | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 7.22 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 10.89 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 94 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 4.09
Red cards0.27league 0.11
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls24.9league 25.2
Penalties0.44league 0.36
Home wins45%league 45%
Malmo FFNo previous matches with this referee.
Dinamo ZagrebNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Malmo FF2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Dinamo Zagreb2 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Malmo FF10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Dinamo Zagreb10 games · scored 18 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures UEFA Europa League
View all fixtures →
Lyon
FC Basel 1893
20
SC Braga
FK Crvena Zvezda
20
Brann
Rangers
30
GO Ahead Eagles
Aston Villa
21
FCSB
Bologna
12
Red Bull Salzburg
Ferencvarosi TC
23
Fenerbahce
VfB Stuttgart
10
Genk
Real Betis
00
Feyenoord
Panathinaikos
31
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
20
Lille
PAOK
34
SC Freiburg
Utrecht
20
Celtic
Sturm Graz
21
Malmo FF
Dinamo Zagreb
11
AS Roma
Plzen
12
Celta Vigo
Nice
21
BSC Young Boys
Ludogorets
32
Maccabi Tel Aviv
FC Midtjylland
03