Manchester City
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Manchester City56.6%fair odds 1.77
Draw22.9%fair odds 4.37
Bournemouth20.5%fair odds 4.87
Expected goals1.95 – 1.10total 3.05
Likeliest score1–110.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bournemouth
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Manchester City ↓ · Bournemouth → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Manchester City goals, columns Bournemouth goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%9.35
- 2–19.9%10.10
- 2–09.0%11.12
- 1–08.7%11.52
- 3–16.4%15.53
- 3–05.8%17.10
- 1–25.6%17.89
- 2–25.5%18.34
- 0–05.3%19.00
- 0–14.7%21.44
Winning margin
16.3%
Manchester City by 3+
fair 6.13
17.4%
Manchester City by 2
fair 5.74
22.8%
Manchester City by 1
fair 4.38
22.9%
Draw
fair 4.37
12.7%
Bournemouth by 1
fair 7.90
5.6%
Bournemouth by 2
fair 18.00
2.3%
Bournemouth by 3+
fair 43.44
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Manchester City goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
13%4+
Bournemouth goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City win | 56.6% | 55.2% | +1.4 pp |
| Draw | 22.9% | 23.7% | -0.8 pp |
| Bournemouth win | 20.5% | 21.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 56.3% | +2.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.8% | 56.3% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Manchester City | 1.95 | 1.86 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Bournemouth | 1.10 | 1.08 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Manchester City win56.6%1.77
- Draw22.9%4.37
- Bournemouth win20.5%4.87
- Double chance Manchester City or draw79.5%1.26
- Double chance Manchester City or Bournemouth77.1%1.30
- Double chance Bournemouth or draw43.4%2.30
- Draw no bet Manchester City73.4%1.36
- Draw no bet Bournemouth26.6%3.76
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.4%1.23
- Over 2.558.8%1.70
- Over 3.536.5%2.74
- Over 4.519.4%5.16
- Under 1.518.6%5.37
- Under 2.541.2%2.43
- Under 3.563.5%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes57.8%1.73
- No42.2%2.37
- Yes and over 2.547.1%2.12
- Manchester City win and yes28.6%3.50
- Draw and yes17.6%5.67
- Bournemouth win and yes11.6%8.65
Team goals
- Manchester City over 0.585.8%1.17
- Manchester City over 1.558.1%1.72
- Manchester City over 2.531.0%3.22
- Bournemouth over 0.566.8%1.50
- Bournemouth over 1.530.1%3.32
- Bournemouth over 2.510.0%10.01
- Manchester City clean sheet33.2%3.01
- Bournemouth clean sheet14.2%7.04
- Manchester City win to nil28.0%3.57
- Bournemouth win to nil8.9%11.17
Handicap
- Manchester City −1.533.7%2.96
- Manchester City −2.516.3%6.13
- Bournemouth +1.566.3%1.51
- Bournemouth +2.583.7%1.19
- Bournemouth −1.57.9%12.73
- Manchester City +1.592.1%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored6
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.613
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right33.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 38.6% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 3 | 46.0% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 68.6% | 0.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 6 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 6 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.