Manchester City vs Bournemouth – 23 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 23 · 14:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester City

2–1Full time

Bournemouth

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester City were slight favourites.

Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 79). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bournemouth. Manchester City had 90.9 days of rest, Bournemouth 90.9 and had to travel 308 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel308 kmRest days90.9 · 90.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Manchester City57%

Draw22%

Bournemouth21%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.10

Manchester City56%

Draw23%

Bournemouth21%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.00

Manchester City56%

Draw22%

Bournemouth22%

Expected goals 1.93 – 1.11

Manchester City49%

Draw24%

Bournemouth27%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.23

Manchester City56%

Draw23%

Bournemouth22%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.08

Over 2.5 59% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

19°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 2 km/h
Humidity 46%

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 109

Team strength

Manchester City

Bournemouth

89 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

91 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

92 AttackIn forecast 83

82 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester City

Bournemouth

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

2.00 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

100% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

19.80 ShotsContext 14.10

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

31% On target shareContext 28%

13.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

70% Box shareContext 57%

10% ConversionContext 10%

1.60 OffsidesContext 1.78

9.00 Shots allowedContext 12.10

3.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

3.00 BlocksContext 5.00

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

70% Save rateContext 74%

62% PossessionIn forecast 51%

596 PassesContext 429

531 Accurate passesContext 348

89% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.06 Team ratingContext 7.05

8.10 FoulsContext 11.40

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City

Rest90.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bournemouth

Rest90.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel308 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester City	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	90.9Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May	90.9Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	308 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	5.3	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Donnarumma(G)

24J. Gvardiol 3Rúben Dias 45A. Khusanov 82R. Lewis

6A. Guéhi 5E. Anderson

42A. Semenyo 33N. O'Reilly 47P. Foden

9E. Haaland

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith

8A. Scott 4L. Cook

16M. Tavernier 19J. Kluivert 37Rayan

9Evanilson

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester City Absences are shown before kick-off

Bournemouth Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester City+0.8 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Bournemouth-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home No home games yet this season.

Bournemouth · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

6 Manchester City wins1 draws1 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game2.88 – 0.88 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

19 May 2026Bournemouth1–1Manchester City
2 Nov 2025Manchester City3–1Bournemouth
20 May 2025Manchester City3–1Bournemouth
2 Nov 2024Bournemouth2–1Manchester City
24 Feb 2024Bournemouth0–1Manchester City
4 Nov 2023Manchester City6–1Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester City	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.05
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	59%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Manchester City	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.40
Conceded per game	1.00	0.80
Match goals	3.00	2.20	3.05
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	59%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	57%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester City	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.60
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Manchester City	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	9.80	5.30
Corners conceded	4.10	5.30
Match total	13.90	10.60	8.00
Over 8.5	100% 10/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	100% 10/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	100% 10/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.20
Opponent cards	2.10	1.80
Match total	3.70	4.00	2.60
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 109 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 2.33

Red cards0.09league 0.00

Cards 5+37%league 0%

Fouls20.1league 24.7

Penalties0.23league 0.17

Home wins38%league 83%

Manchester City10 with this referee

Record7-3-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

D1 Jan 26A · Sunderland0–01
W16 Aug 25A · Wolves4–02
W12 Apr 25H · Crystal Palace5–22
W26 Feb 25A · Tottenham1–00
D28 Sep 24A · Newcastle1–14

Bournemouth6 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.2 Pens for · against0 · 2

D28 Feb 26H · Sunderland1–14
D18 Oct 25A · Crystal Palace3–34
W3 May 25A · Arsenal2–12
W15 Feb 25A · Southampton3–13
L24 Feb 24H · Manchester City0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.