Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester City were clear favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Manchester City. Manchester City had 3.1 days of rest, Fulham 4.2 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days3.1 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester City69%
Draw18%
Fulham13%
Manchester City63%
Draw22%
Fulham15%
Manchester City70%
Draw18%
Fulham12%
Manchester City62%
Draw21%
Fulham18%
Manchester City67%
Draw20%
Fulham14%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereePaul Tierney
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 116
Team strength
Manchester City
Fulham
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
92
AttackIn forecast
66
82
DefenceIn forecast
68
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CityFulham
2.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.96
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.48
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
84%
Scored inContext
84%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.24
ShotsContext
11.92
5.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
36%
On target shareContext
31%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.96
74%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.61
OffsidesContext
2.04
9.68
Shots allowedContext
11.76
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.08
2.91
BlocksContext
3.36
2.48
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.95
72%
Save rateContext
69%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
571
PassesContext
479
504
Accurate passesContext
403
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.20
FoulsContext
10.96
11.44
Fouls sufferedContext
9.36
1.84
Yellow cardsContext
2.12
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.70
ShotsContext
13.50
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
33%
On target shareContext
30%
10.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
74%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.44
OffsidesContext
1.78
9.20
Shots allowedContext
12.10
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.38
BlocksContext
3.10
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
69%
Save rateContext
68%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
611
PassesContext
529
543
Accurate passesContext
453
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.90
FoulsContext
9.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
7.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km623 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Fulham
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel262 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 623 km | 524 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10 | 10.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
21R. Aït-Nouri
15A. Guéhi
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
33N. O'Reilly
16Rodri
20Bernardo Silva
42A. Semenyo
9E. Haaland
47P. Foden
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
30K. Sessegnon
3C. Bassey
5J. Andersen
2K. Tete
17A. Iwobi
16S. Berge
19S. Chukwueze
32E. Smith Rowe
8H. Wilson
7R. Jiménez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fulham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Fulham+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
2.42points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-1
- Scored
- 2.42
- Conceded
- 0.67
Fulham · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-7
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester City | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Wolves | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Brighton | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Chelsea | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Sunderland | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| West Ham | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Leeds | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Bournemouth | W 3–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Aston Villa | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Everton | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Brentford | W 1–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Burnley | W 5–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Arsenal | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 47 of 72 · 1.96 per game | 34 of 72 · 1.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
9 Manchester City wins0 draws0 Fulham wins
Goals per game3.11 – 1.00
Over 2.578%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets44% · 0%
- 2 Dec 2025Fulham4–5Manchester City
- 25 May 2025Fulham0–2Manchester City
- 5 Oct 2024Manchester City3–2Fulham
- 11 May 2024Fulham0–4Manchester City
- 2 Sep 2023Manchester City5–1Fulham
- 30 Apr 2023Fulham1–2Manchester City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.04 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.96 | 1.48 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.88 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 56% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 64% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 16% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Manchester City | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.80 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.46 | 4.68 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.96 | 5.68 | |
| Match total | 9.42 | 10.36 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 16/24 | 80% 20/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 11/24 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 8/24 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.84 | 2.12 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.04 | 1.72 | |
| Match total | 3.88 | 3.84 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 15/25 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 10/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Manchester City | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.70 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.70 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Paul Tierney 116 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.74
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls22.2league 21.3
Penalties0.18league 0.22
Home wins38%league 43%
Manchester City13 with this referee
Record11-2-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W20 Dec 25H · West Ham3–01
- W6 Apr 24A · Crystal Palace4–21
- D16 Dec 23H · Crystal Palace2–21
- W29 Oct 23A · Manchester United3–01
- W25 Feb 23A · Bournemouth4–12
Fulham6 with this referee
Record1-3-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W10 Dec 23H · West Ham5–02
- D23 Sep 23A · Crystal Palace0–02
- D26 Aug 23A · Arsenal2–26
- L23 Jan 23H · Tottenham0–11
- L13 Nov 22H · Manchester United1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City25 games · scored 51 · conceded 24
7
0-15
5
2
16-30
15
4
31-45
6
5
46-60
10
8
61-75
8
5
76-90
Fulham25 games · scored 35 · conceded 37
5
0-15
2
7
16-30
6
6
31-45
5
11
46-60
6
2
61-75
11
11
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
9
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
