Manchester City
Attack+26%
Defense risk−19%
Our take
Manchester City were clear favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Ipswich. Manchester City had 2.8 days of rest, Ipswich 7 and had to travel 278 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel278 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Manchester City82%
Draw11%
Ipswich7%
Manchester City77%
Draw16%
Ipswich8%
Manchester City82%
Draw11%
Ipswich7%
Manchester City75%
Draw14%
Ipswich11%
Manchester City79%
Draw13%
Ipswich8%
Over 2.5 81%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 3–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
12°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 52%
RefereeFarai Hallam
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 46
Team strength
Manchester City
Ipswich
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
92
AttackIn forecast
59
82
DefenceIn forecast
50
93
Form indexContext
62
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIpswich
Attack−18%
Defense risk+43%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Manchester CityIpswich
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+0.69
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
100%
Scored inContext
67%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.83
ShotsContext
11.50
5.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
37%
On target shareContext
41%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
69%
Box shareContext
62%
19%
ConversionContext
13%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
16.50
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.00
BlocksContext
4.83
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
77%
Save rateContext
58%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
618
PassesContext
415
550
Accurate passesContext
343
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.27
Team ratingContext
6.69
11.17
FoulsContext
11.00
14.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.33
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
100%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.00
ShotsContext
12.60
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
36%
On target shareContext
41%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
68%
Box shareContext
67%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.40
Shots allowedContext
14.70
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.56
BlocksContext
4.70
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
72%
Save rateContext
66%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
585
PassesContext
419
520
Accurate passesContext
344
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.90
FoulsContext
11.10
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
WWWWL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
Ipswich
LLWLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel278 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 62 · 6 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Ipswich |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 278 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 99 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
1G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
6A. Guéhi
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
32A. Bouaddi
8M. Kovačić
11J. Doku
47P. Foden
7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland
Ipswich
Confirmed XI
28C. Walton(G)
24J. Greaves
6I. Diop
26D. O'Shea
3L. Davis
25E. Palacios
12Florentino
42A. Ouattara
10J. Enciso
38D. Maeda
19Emersonn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
No reported absences
Ipswich
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Ipswich+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Ipswich · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Manchester City | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | W 3–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Sunderland | W 5–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Manchester United | W 1–0 A | L 2–5 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 4–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Points | 12 of 12 · 3.00 per game | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Manchester City wins0 draws0 Ipswich wins
Goals per game5.00 – 0.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 19 Jan 2025Ipswich0–6Manchester City
- 24 Aug 2024Manchester City4–1Ipswich
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Ipswich | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 81% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Manchester City | Ipswich | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 67% | 81% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 67% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 10 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Ipswich | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.17 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.66 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 4.33 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Manchester City | Ipswich | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 8.50 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.00 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Farai Hallam 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.54league 3.89
Red cards0.02league 0.15
Cards 5+30%league 43%
Fouls22.4league 23.0
Penalties0.13league 0.16
Home wins33%league 38%
Manchester City1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Jan 26H · Wolves2–01
Ipswich4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Aug 26H · Sunderland2–10
- L14 Apr 26A · Portsmouth0–22
- L21 Oct 25H · Charlton0–30
- W12 Sep 25H · Sheffield Utd5–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City6 games · scored 16 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
61-75
5
76-90
Ipswich6 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
76-90
Ipswich10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2
5
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
