Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester City
3rd · 19 pts · 10 played
WWWLW
3–0Full time
Liverpool
6th · 18 pts · 10 played
LLLLW
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Liverpool. Manchester City had 7 days of rest, Liverpool 7.9 and had to travel 50 km.
Away travel50 kmRest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Manchester City44%
Draw25%
Liverpool31%
Manchester City42%
Draw27%
Liverpool31%
Manchester City43%
Draw25%
Liverpool32%
Manchester City36%
Draw25%
Liverpool39%
Manchester City43%
Draw27%
Liverpool31%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 138
Team strength
Manchester CityLiverpool
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
91
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
84
92
AttackIn forecast
86
83
DefenceIn forecast
83
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CityLiverpool
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.80
ShotsContext
15.60
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
37%
On target shareContext
29%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
72%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.13
9.40
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
2.80
BlocksContext
2.89
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
75%
Save rateContext
62%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
552
PassesContext
521
486
Accurate passesContext
444
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.94
8.90
FoulsContext
9.60
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
2.00
0.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.50
ShotsContext
16.40
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
41%
On target shareContext
34%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.60
72%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.11
7.90
Shots allowedContext
10.60
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.78
BlocksContext
2.00
1.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
72%
Save rateContext
67%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
608
PassesContext
526
547
Accurate passesContext
455
90%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.10
FoulsContext
9.90
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Liverpool
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel50 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 7.9Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
24J. Gvardiol
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
47P. Foden
14Nico González
20Bernardo Silva
11J. Doku
9E. Haaland
10M. Cherki
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
25G. Mamardashvili(G)
26A. Robertson
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
12C. Bradley
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
7F. Wirtz
8D. Szoboszlai
11Mohamed Salah
22H. Ekitiké
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Absences are shown before kick-off
Liverpool
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Liverpool-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
2.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 0.80
Liverpool · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Manchester City | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | W 3–1 H | W 4–2 H |
| Aston Villa | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Everton | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Brentford | W 1–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Burnley | W 5–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Arsenal | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Manchester United | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 16 of 21 · 2.29 per game | 15 of 21 · 2.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Manchester City wins5 draws3 Liverpool wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.40
Over 2.540%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets0% · 30%
- 23 Feb 2025Manchester City0–2Liverpool
- 1 Dec 2024Liverpool2–0Manchester City
- 10 Mar 2024Liverpool1–1Manchester City
- 25 Nov 2023Manchester City1–1Liverpool
- 1 Apr 2023Manchester City4–1Liverpool
- 16 Oct 2022Liverpool1–0Manchester City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.90 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.30 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 138 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.60
Red cards0.14league 0.11
Cards 5+36%league 39%
Fouls21.7league 22.0
Penalties0.24league 0.18
Home wins39%league 52%
Manchester City11 with this referee
Record7-2-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against3 · 1
- L8 Mar 25A · Nottingham Forest0–12
- L1 Dec 24A · Liverpool0–23
- W20 Oct 24A · Wolves2–11
- W14 May 24A · Tottenham2–03
- W13 Jan 24A · Newcastle3–22
Liverpool18 with this referee
Record11-3-4
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L27 Sep 25A · Crystal Palace1–23
- W31 Aug 25H · Arsenal1–02
- L6 Apr 25A · Fulham2–30
- W26 Feb 25H · Newcastle2–00
- D14 Jan 25A · Nottingham Forest1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City10 games · scored 20 · conceded 8
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
8
5
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 22 · conceded 7
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
3
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
