Newcastle vs Chelsea – 10 Feb 2027

Premier League Gameweek 25 Wed, Feb 10 · 20:00 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 11th · 8 pts · 7 played DLWLL

VS— Compare

Chelsea 4th · 13 pts · 7 played LDLWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel398 kmRest days4.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Newcastle—%

Draw—%

Chelsea—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

Forecast from 26 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Newcastle

Chelsea

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

61 AttackIn forecast 77

61 DefenceIn forecast 74

35 Form indexContext 69

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Chelsea

1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.43

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +1.00

86% Scored inContext 86%

14% Clean sheetsContext 14%

12.29 ShotsContext 14.29

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.57

29% On target shareContext 39%

7.57 Shots in the boxContext 9.14

62% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 17%

2.71 OffsidesContext 1.60

17.43 Shots allowedContext 12.43

5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.86

7.57 BlocksContext 3.67

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.29

62% Save rateContext 73%

52% PossessionIn forecast 47%

430 PassesContext 432

359 Accurate passesContext 361

84% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.75 Team ratingContext 7.09

12.14 FoulsContext 9.29

11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 11.71

2.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.90

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.40 ShotsContext 12.30

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

32% On target shareContext 40%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

59% Box shareContext 60%

11% ConversionContext 17%

2.44 OffsidesContext 1.50

17.50 Shots allowedContext 12.50

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

6.90 BlocksContext 3.44

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

68% Save rateContext 74%

53% PossessionIn forecast 48%

452 PassesContext 442

380 Accurate passesContext 370

84% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.80 Team ratingContext 7.00

11.00 FoulsContext 10.50

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle DLWLL

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km390 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected

L17 OctH · Aston Villa0–11.2 xPts
L12 OctA · Coventry1–41.5 xPts
W19 SepH · Hull City2–12.0 xPts
L14 SepA · Leeds1–41.1 xPts
D5 SepH · Bournemouth2–21.5 xPts

Chelsea LDLWW

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel398 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected

W17 OctA · Everton2–01.3 xPts
W10 OctH · Bournemouth5–11.5 xPts
L18 SepA · Brentford0–31.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Hull City2–22.3 xPts
L6 SepA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 6 Feb	4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 6 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	390 km	524 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	9.8	9.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Aston Villa (H) 0–1, 17 Oct

21L. Horníček(G)

3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley

7Joelinton 6Nico González

11H. Barnes 28J. Willock 20M. Fernandez-Pardo

9Y. Wissa

Chelsea Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Everton (A) 2–0, 17 Oct

1E. Martínez(G)

21J. Hato 6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong

14J. Henderson 25M. Caicedo

17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto

9João Pedro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Chelsea Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Chelsea · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Chelsea
Hull City	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 H
Bournemouth	D 2–2 H	W 5–1 H
Points	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

4 Newcastle wins2 draws4 Chelsea wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.30 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets30% · 20%

14 Mar 2026Chelsea0–1Newcastle
20 Dec 2025Newcastle2–2Chelsea
11 May 2025Newcastle2–0Chelsea
27 Oct 2024Chelsea2–1Newcastle
11 Mar 2024Chelsea3–2Newcastle
25 Nov 2023Newcastle4–1Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Chelsea
Scored per game	1.43	2.43
Conceded per game	2.00	1.86
Match goals	3.43	4.29
Over 1.5	86%	100%
Over 2.5	71%	86%
Over 3.5	57%	57%
Both teams scored	71%	71%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	14%	14%
Games	7	7

	Newcastle	Chelsea
Scored per game	1.40	2.10
Conceded per game	1.80	1.70
Match goals	3.20	3.80
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	80%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	80%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.57	5.86
Corners conceded	5.29	5.43
Match total	9.86	11.29	9.49
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	2.71	1.86
Opponent cards	2.14	3.00
Match total	4.85	4.86	4.17
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	86% 6/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	57% 4/7

	Newcastle	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	4.80
Corners conceded	4.60	5.30
Match total	9.40	10.10	9.49
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.60
Opponent cards	2.20	3.10
Match total	4.40	5.70	4.17
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.