Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester City
2nd · 34 pts · 16 played
LWWWW
3–0Full time
West Ham
18th · 13 pts · 16 played
DLDDL
Our take
Manchester City were clear favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 55). Manchester City usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Manchester City had 6 days of rest, West Ham 6 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester City76%
Draw15%
West Ham9%
Manchester City74%
Draw17%
West Ham9%
Manchester City76%
Draw15%
West Ham9%
Manchester City69%
Draw18%
West Ham12%
Manchester City74%
Draw17%
West Ham9%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereePaul Tierney
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 110
Team strength
Manchester CityWest Ham
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
92
AttackIn forecast
68
82
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CityWest Ham
2.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
88%
Scored inContext
69%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
6%
13.94
ShotsContext
10.13
5.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
39%
On target shareContext
36%
10.31
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
74%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
1.70
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.69
Shots allowedContext
15.25
3.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.25
2.94
BlocksContext
4.87
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
68%
Save rateContext
66%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
550
PassesContext
367
483
Accurate passesContext
292
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.72
9.38
FoulsContext
10.88
11.06
Fouls sufferedContext
10.69
1.69
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
2.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.50
ShotsContext
9.70
6.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
47%
On target shareContext
33%
11.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
78%
Box shareContext
64%
19%
ConversionContext
13%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.90
10.30
Shots allowedContext
16.70
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.40
BlocksContext
5.78
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
63%
Save rateContext
73%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
520
PassesContext
337
455
Accurate passesContext
261
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.00
FoulsContext
11.20
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
West Ham
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel262 km143 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 143 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
24J. Gvardiol
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
20Bernardo Silva
14Nico González
4T. Reijnders
47P. Foden
10M. Cherki
9E. Haaland
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
30O. Scarles
25J. Todibo
3M. Kilman
2K. Walker-Peters
18Mateus Fernandes
32F. Potts
27S. Magassa
10Lucas Paquetá
7C. Summerville
20J. Bowen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- West Ham+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
2.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-0-1
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
West Ham · Away
0.88points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-3
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Manchester City | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Sunderland | W 3–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Leeds | W 3–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Liverpool | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Bournemouth | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Aston Villa | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Everton | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Brentford | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Burnley | W 5–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Arsenal | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Manchester United | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Brighton | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Tottenham | L 0–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 28 of 42 · 2.00 per game | 10 of 42 · 0.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
8 Manchester City wins2 draws0 West Ham wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.90
Over 2.580%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 4 Jan 2025Manchester City4–1West Ham
- 31 Aug 2024West Ham1–3Manchester City
- 19 May 2024Manchester City3–1West Ham
- 16 Sep 2023West Ham1–3Manchester City
- 3 May 2023Manchester City3–0West Ham
- 7 Aug 2022West Ham0–2Manchester City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.38 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 3.19 | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 63% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 63% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 6% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 31% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Manchester City | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 9.81 | 12.06 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 12/16 | 81% 13/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 8/16 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 8/16 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.69 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.56 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 3.31 | 3.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 9/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 5/16 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Manchester City | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 11.40 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Paul Tierney 110 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.85league 3.68
Red cards0.12league 0.11
Cards 5+42%league 39%
Fouls22.2league 22.0
Penalties0.18league 0.20
Home wins37%league 48%
Manchester City12 with this referee
Record10-2-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W6 Apr 24A · Crystal Palace4–21
- D16 Dec 23H · Crystal Palace2–21
- W29 Oct 23A · Manchester United3–01
- W25 Feb 23A · Bournemouth4–12
- W5 Jan 23A · Chelsea1–00
West Ham8 with this referee
Record4-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 Dec 23A · Fulham0–51
- W1 Sep 23A · Luton2–11
- W2 Apr 23H · Southampton1–00
- L6 Nov 22H · Crystal Palace1–21
- W1 Oct 22H · Wolves2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City16 games · scored 38 · conceded 16
4
0-15
5
2
16-30
10
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
9
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
West Ham16 games · scored 19 · conceded 32
3
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
7
46-60
2
6
61-75
8
7
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 27 · conceded 13
1
0-15
6
3
16-30
9
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
5
61-75
3
1
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
