Manchester United vs Brentford – 27 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 34 Mon, Apr 27 · 20:00 Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United 3rd · 58 pts · 33 played LWDLW

2–1Full time

Brentford 9th · 48 pts · 33 played DDDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester United were slight favourites.

Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 74). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Brentford. Manchester United had 9 days of rest, Brentford 9.3 and had to travel 257 km.

Away travel257 kmRest days9 · 9.3Matches / 14d2 · 1

Manchester United48%

Draw24%

Brentford28%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.34

Manchester United49%

Draw26%

Brentford25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10

Manchester United48%

Draw24%

Brentford28%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.31

Manchester United40%

Draw25%

Brentford35%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.50

Manchester United47%

Draw25%

Brentford28%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.25

Over 2.5 61% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 161

Team strength

Manchester United

Brentford

80 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

72 AttackIn forecast 73

80 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester United

Brentford

1.76 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.45

1.36 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

91% Scored inContext 67%

18% Clean sheetsContext 27%

15.64 ShotsContext 10.61

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.94

36% On target shareContext 37%

10.38 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

64% Box shareContext 73%

11% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.08

11.42 Shots allowedContext 12.61

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.06

3.84 BlocksContext 4.33

2.53 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.97

64% Save rateContext 69%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

471 PassesContext 396

390 Accurate passesContext 313

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.87

10.09 FoulsContext 10.79

11.09 Fouls sufferedContext 9.41

1.61 Yellow cardsContext 1.76

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

100% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.40 ShotsContext 10.90

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

41% On target shareContext 32%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

62% Box shareContext 74%

12% ConversionContext 12%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.60

12.10 Shots allowedContext 13.80

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

4.60 BlocksContext 4.40

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

68% Save rateContext 66%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

509 PassesContext 395

432 Accurate passesContext 303

85% Pass accuracyContext 77%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.85

10.20 FoulsContext 10.10

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest9.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel257 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester United	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Apr	9.3Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	257 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	524 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	4.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 26A. Heaven 5J. Maguire 2Diogo Dalot

37K. Mainoo 18Casemiro

16A. Diallo 8Bruno Fernandes 19B. Mbeumo

30B. Šeško

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 22N. Collins 4S. van den Berg 33M. Kayode

8M. Jensen 18Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester United Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester United-0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Brentford+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home 2.06points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 10-3-3
Scored: 1.94
Conceded: 1.19

Brentford · Away 1.25points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 6-2-8
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.56

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Manchester United	Brentford
Chelsea	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Leeds	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Bournemouth	D 2–2 AD 4–4 H	D 0–0 AW 4–1 H
Aston Villa	W 3–1 HL 1–2 A	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Newcastle	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	W 3–2 AW 3–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	L 0–2 A
Everton	W 1–0 AL 0–1 H	D 2–2 HW 4–2 A
West Ham	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	W 2–0 A
Tottenham	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Fulham	W 3–2 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Arsenal	W 3–2 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Manchester City	W 2–0 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 H
Burnley	D 2–2 AW 3–2 H	W 4–3 AW 3–1 H
Wolves	D 1–1 HW 4–1 A	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A
Nottingham Forest	D 2–2 A	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A
Brighton	W 4–2 H	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
Liverpool	W 2–1 A	W 3–2 H
Sunderland	W 2–0 H	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Points	58 of 96 · 1.81 per game	45 of 96 · 1.41 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

5 Manchester United wins1 draws3 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.78 – 1.67 Over 2.578% Both scored67% Clean sheets22% · 11%

27 Sep 2025Brentford3–1Manchester United
4 May 2025Brentford4–3Manchester United
19 Oct 2024Manchester United2–1Brentford
30 Mar 2024Brentford1–1Manchester United
7 Oct 2023Manchester United2–1Brentford
5 Apr 2023Manchester United1–0Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester United	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.76	1.45
Conceded per game	1.36	1.33
Match goals	3.12	2.79	3.14
Over 1.5	85%	79%
Over 2.5	61%	48%	61%
Over 3.5	36%	39%
Both teams scored	73%	52%	62%
Clean sheets	18%	27%
Failed to score	9%	33%
Games	33	33

	Manchester United	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.30
Conceded per game	1.10	1.20
Match goals	2.80	2.50	3.14
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	61%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	62%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester United	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	4.59	4.97
Corners conceded	5.09	5.00
Match total	9.68	9.97	10.05
Over 8.5	56% 18/32	69% 22/32
Over 9.5	53% 17/32	63% 20/32
Over 10.5	34% 11/32	53% 17/32
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.79
Opponent cards	2.24	1.82
Match total	3.94	3.61	3.90
Over 3.5	61% 20/33	52% 17/33
Over 4.5	45% 15/33	36% 12/33

	Manchester United	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	4.10
Corners conceded	5.33	5.40
Match total	10.22	9.50	10.05
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.50
Opponent cards	2.10	1.90
Match total	4.60	3.40	3.90
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 161 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.82league 3.77

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+37%league 38%

Fouls21.8league 21.5

Penalties0.23league 0.21

Home wins39%league 42%

Manchester United14 with this referee

Record9-2-3 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.6 Pens for · against4 · 1 Reds1

W1 Mar 26H · Crystal Palace2–12
D24 Aug 25A · Fulham1–11
L16 May 25A · Chelsea0–16
L29 Sep 24H · Tottenham0–36
W28 Feb 24A · Nottingham Forest1–01

Brentford4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

L22 Nov 25A · Brighton1–22
D23 Nov 24A · Everton0–01
L8 Apr 23H · Newcastle1–20
L2 May 22A · Manchester United0–30

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.