Manchester United vs Chelsea – 20 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 20 · 17:30 Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United 17th · 4 pts · 4 played LDWL

2–1Full time

Chelsea 6th · 8 pts · 4 played DWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 69). Absences weigh more on Manchester United. Manchester United had 6 days of rest, Chelsea 6.9 and had to travel 262 km.

Away travel262 kmRest days6 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Manchester United31%

Draw25%

Chelsea44%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.65

Manchester United32%

Draw27%

Chelsea41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

Manchester United32%

Draw26%

Chelsea42%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.59

Manchester United25%

Draw24%

Chelsea52%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.85

Manchester United31%

Draw27%

Chelsea42%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.49

Over 2.5 58% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 104

Team strength

Manchester United

Chelsea

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

72 AttackIn forecast 77

80 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester United

Chelsea

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.25

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75

2.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.99

1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

-1.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

50% Scored inContext 75%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

17.50 ShotsContext 15.00

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

26% On target shareContext 37%

12.25 Shots in the boxContext 10.25

70% Box shareContext 70%

6% ConversionContext 15%

1.50 OffsidesContext 3.00

10.25 Shots allowedContext 10.25

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75

3.33 BlocksContext 2.50

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

50% Save rateContext 73%

57% PossessionIn forecast 63%

470 PassesContext 552

390 Accurate passesContext 490

83% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.83 Team ratingContext 7.19

9.25 FoulsContext 10.00

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25

0.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.78 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

-0.48 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

50% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

15.90 ShotsContext 12.30

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

31% On target shareContext 36%

11.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

67% Box shareContext 64%

8% ConversionContext 14%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.63

9.10 Shots allowedContext 11.20

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.11 BlocksContext 3.22

1.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

50% Save rateContext 74%

58% PossessionIn forecast 58%

484 PassesContext 518

405 Accurate passesContext 453

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.02

9.40 FoulsContext 9.70

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel262 km26 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester United	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Sep	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	26 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1A. Bayındır(G)

23L. Shaw 5J. Maguire 4M. de Ligt

13P. Dorgu 8Bruno Fernandes 18Casemiro 3N. Mazraoui

16A. Diallo 19B. Mbeumo

30B. Šeško

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 23T. Chalobah 29W. Fofana 24R. James

25M. Caicedo 8E. Fernández

7Pedro Neto 10C. Palmer 41Estêvão

20João Pedro

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester United Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester United-1.1 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Chelsea+1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Chelsea · Away 2.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 3.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Manchester United	Chelsea
Fulham	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Manchester United wins6 draws2 Chelsea wins

Goals per game1.30 – 1.10 Over 2.530% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 30%

16 May 2025Chelsea1–0Manchester United
3 Nov 2024Manchester United1–1Chelsea
4 Apr 2024Chelsea4–3Manchester United
6 Dec 2023Manchester United2–1Chelsea
25 May 2023Manchester United4–1Chelsea
22 Oct 2022Chelsea1–1Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester United	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.25
Conceded per game	1.75	0.75
Match goals	2.75	3.00	3.02
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	25%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	25%
Games	4	4

	Manchester United	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.25
Conceded per game	1.75	0.75
Match goals	2.75	3.00	3.02
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	25%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	25%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester United	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	7.00
Corners conceded	4.00	4.50
Match total	9.00	11.50	9.72
Over 8.5	25% 1/4	100% 4/4
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	100% 4/4
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	75% 3/4
Cards
Cards	0.75	1.75
Opponent cards	2.50	2.00
Match total	3.25	3.75	3.60
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4

	Manchester United	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	5.80
Corners conceded	4.56	4.20
Match total	9.23	10.00	9.72
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.90
Opponent cards	2.20	2.60
Match total	4.20	4.50	3.60
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 104 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.10league 3.51

Red cards0.10league 0.11

Cards 5+44%league 40%

Fouls21.3league 22.4

Penalties0.14league 0.27

Home wins47%league 47%

Manchester United8 with this referee

Record2-1-5 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 0

D27 Apr 25A · Bournemouth1–12
L16 Feb 25A · Tottenham0–12
L19 Jan 25H · Brighton1–33
W10 Nov 24H · Leicester3–00
L9 Dec 23H · Bournemouth0–33

Chelsea9 with this referee

Record5-3-1 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.2 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

W15 Dec 24H · Brentford2–12
W28 Sep 24H · Brighton4–23
L8 Apr 23A · Wolves0–15
W15 Jan 23H · Crystal Palace1–02
D1 Jan 23A · Nottingham Forest1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.