Manchester United vs Everton – 24 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 12 Mon, Nov 24 · 20:00 Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United 10th · 18 pts · 11 played WWWDD

0–1Full time

Everton 13th · 15 pts · 11 played WLLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester United were slight favourites.

Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 67). Manchester United had 16.3 days of rest, Everton 16.2 and had to travel 50 km.

Away travel50 kmRest days16.3 · 16.2Matches / 14d0 · 0

Manchester United50%

Draw25%

Everton25%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.17

Manchester United49%

Draw26%

Everton25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10

Manchester United50%

Draw25%

Everton25%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.15

Manchester United42%

Draw26%

Everton32%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.31

Manchester United49%

Draw26%

Everton25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.12

Over 2.5 55% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

RefereeTony Harrington

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 76

Team strength

Manchester United

Everton

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

72 AttackIn forecast 61

80 DefenceIn forecast 66

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester United

Everton

1.73 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.09

1.64 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.18

1.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

82% Scored inContext 64%

9% Clean sheetsContext 27%

14.36 ShotsContext 11.09

5.09 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.18

35% On target shareContext 29%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.27

65% Box shareContext 66%

12% ConversionContext 10%

1.64 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.55 Shots allowedContext 13.09

4.18 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.90 BlocksContext 5.18

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.64

60% Save rateContext 66%

51% PossessionIn forecast 45%

438 PassesContext 382

353 Accurate passesContext 306

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.93

9.60 FoulsContext 10.73

12.36 Fouls sufferedContext 12.18

1.18 Yellow cardsContext 2.36

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.69 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.60 ShotsContext 11.50

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

36% On target shareContext 30%

9.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

65% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 10%

1.70 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.80 Shots allowedContext 12.30

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

2.89 BlocksContext 4.60

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

60% Save rateContext 66%

50% PossessionIn forecast 45%

434 PassesContext 380

349 Accurate passesContext 304

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.96

9.56 FoulsContext 11.00

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United

Rest16.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Everton

Rest16.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel50 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester United	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	16.3Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Nov	16.2Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	50 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.7	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 4M. de Ligt 15L. Yoro

13P. Dorgu 18Casemiro 8Bruno Fernandes 3N. Mazraoui

16A. Diallo 19B. Mbeumo

11J. Zirkzee

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 5M. Keane 6J. Tarkowski 23S. Coleman

27I. Gueye 37J. Garner

18J. Grealish 22K. Dewsbury-Hall 10I. Ndiaye

11T. Barry

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester United Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Everton Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester United+0.0 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Everton+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home 2.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-1
Scored: 2.20
Conceded: 1.20

Everton · Away 0.80points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Manchester United	Everton
Tottenham	D 2–2 A	L 0–3 H
Brighton	W 4–2 H	W 2–0 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 A
Sunderland	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Manchester City	L 0–3 A	L 0–2 A
Fulham	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Points	11 of 18 · 1.83 per game	7 of 18 · 1.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Manchester United wins3 draws1 Everton wins

Goals per game2.20 – 0.90 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 10%

22 Feb 2025Everton2–2Manchester United
1 Dec 2024Manchester United4–0Everton
9 Mar 2024Manchester United2–0Everton
26 Nov 2023Everton0–3Manchester United
8 Apr 2023Manchester United2–0Everton
9 Oct 2022Everton1–2Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester United	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.73	1.09
Conceded per game	1.64	1.18
Match goals	3.36	2.27	2.89
Over 1.5	91%	82%
Over 2.5	73%	36%	55%
Over 3.5	45%	9%
Both teams scored	73%	45%	57%
Clean sheets	9%	27%
Failed to score	18%	36%
Games	11	11

	Manchester United	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.20
Conceded per game	1.70	1.20
Match goals	3.60	2.40	2.89
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	55%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester United	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	3.82	4.09
Corners conceded	5.09	5.09
Match total	8.91	9.18	9.90
Over 8.5	36% 4/11	55% 6/11
Over 9.5	36% 4/11	36% 4/11
Over 10.5	27% 3/11	36% 4/11
Cards
Cards	1.27	2.36
Opponent cards	2.73	1.82
Match total	4.00	4.18	3.80
Over 3.5	64% 7/11	64% 7/11
Over 4.5	45% 5/11	55% 6/11

	Manchester United	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	4.30
Corners conceded	5.20	4.90
Match total	9.10	9.20	9.90
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.40
Opponent cards	2.60	2.00
Match total	3.90	4.40	3.80
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tony Harrington 76 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.71

Red cards0.12league 0.10

Cards 5+29%league 41%

Fouls21.2league 22.0

Penalties0.25league 0.18

Home wins45%league 52%

Manchester United3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L26 Dec 24A · Wolves0–24
D13 Apr 24A · Bournemouth2–20
W23 Sep 23A · Burnley1–02

Everton6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.2 Pens for · against1 · 0

L18 Oct 25A · Manchester City0–22
W25 May 25A · Newcastle1–04
L29 Dec 24H · Nottingham Forest0–24
D2 Apr 24A · Newcastle1–13
D24 Feb 24A · Brighton1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.