Manchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester United were slight favourites.
Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Manchester United. Manchester United had 24 days of rest, Leeds 23 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days24 · 23Matches / 14d0 · 0
Manchester United58%
Draw23%
Leeds19%
Manchester United54%
Draw25%
Leeds21%
Manchester United56%
Draw24%
Leeds20%
Manchester United50%
Draw25%
Leeds25%
Manchester United56%
Draw24%
Leeds20%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereePaul Tierney
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 120
Team strength
Manchester United
Leeds
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
73
72
AttackIn forecast
69
80
DefenceIn forecast
77
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLeeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester UnitedLeeds
1.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
1.39
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
90%
Scored inContext
65%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
15.87
ShotsContext
12.48
5.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.87
36%
On target shareContext
31%
10.53
Shots in the boxContext
8.42
65%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.04
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.03
3.48
BlocksContext
3.79
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.64
64%
Save rateContext
64%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
472
PassesContext
396
390
Accurate passesContext
315
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.93
FoulsContext
10.39
10.94
Fouls sufferedContext
11.29
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
1.61
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
100%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.10
ShotsContext
11.90
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
42%
On target shareContext
29%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
64%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.63
10.70
Shots allowedContext
11.80
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.70
BlocksContext
3.80
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
71%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
483
PassesContext
381
406
Accurate passesContext
298
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.90
FoulsContext
10.90
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester United
Rest24 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Leeds
Rest23 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel57 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester United |
Leeds |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 24Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Mar | 23Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
6L. Martínez
15L. Yoro
3N. Mazraoui
25M. Ugarte
18Casemiro
10Matheus Cunha
8Bruno Fernandes
16A. Diallo
30B. Šeško
Leeds
Confirmed XI
26K. Darlow(G)
5P. Struijk
15J. Bijol
24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson
22A. Tanaka
4E. Ampadu
2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor
11B. Aaronson
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester United
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Leeds
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester United+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Leeds-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester United · Home
2.20points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-3-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.13
Leeds · Away
0.67points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-7-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.87
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester United | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 AD 4–4 H | D 2–2 H |
| Aston Villa | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 3–4 AD 0–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Everton | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| West Ham | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Tottenham | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Fulham | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Arsenal | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–4 HL 0–5 A |
| Manchester City | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Brighton | W 4–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 AD 3–3 H |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 54 of 90 · 1.80 per game | 32 of 90 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Manchester United wins3 draws0 Leeds wins
Goals per game2.86 – 1.14
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets29% · 14%
- 4 Jan 2026Leeds1–1Manchester United
- 12 Feb 2023Leeds0–2Manchester United
- 8 Feb 2023Manchester United2–2Leeds
- 20 Feb 2022Leeds2–4Manchester United
- 14 Aug 2021Manchester United5–1Leeds
- 25 Apr 2021Leeds0–0Manchester United
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester United | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.81 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.39 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 3.19 | 2.74 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 52% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 74% | 58% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 35% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Manchester United | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.90 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester United | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.72 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.07 | 4.55 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 9.27 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 17/30 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 16/30 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 10/30 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.58 | 1.65 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 3.87 | 3.39 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 18/31 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 14/31 | 32% 10/31 | |
| Manchester United | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 10.10 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Paul Tierney 120 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.83league 3.76
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+41%league 39%
Fouls22.0league 21.5
Penalties0.18league 0.22
Home wins38%league 42%
Manchester United11 with this referee
Record7-1-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L12 May 24H · Arsenal0–10
- L29 Oct 23H · Manchester City0–34
- W12 Feb 23A · Leeds2–01
- W13 Nov 22A · Fulham2–11
- W4 Sep 22H · Arsenal3–13
Leeds13 with this referee
Record4-2-7
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L25 Oct 23A · Stoke City0–13
- D25 Apr 23H · Leicester1–14
- D11 Mar 23H · Brighton2–21
- L12 Feb 23H · Manchester United0–22
- L9 Oct 22A · Crystal Palace1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester United31 games · scored 56 · conceded 43
4
4
0-15
7
4
16-30
10
6
31-45
11
8
46-60
10
8
61-75
14
13
76-90
Leeds31 games · scored 37 · conceded 48
5
4
0-15
3
7
16-30
11
5
31-45
5
9
46-60
7
9
61-75
6
14
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
6
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
