Manchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester United
12th · 5 pts · 5 played
LWDLD
1–1Full time
Tottenham
20th · 2 pts · 5 played
LLDDL
Our take
Manchester United were clear favourites.
Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 60). Manchester United were without M. Rashford. Tottenham were without J. van Hecke and M. van de Ven. Manchester United had 20 days of rest, Tottenham 21.2 and had to travel 262 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel262 kmRest days20 · 21.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Manchester United63%
Draw19%
Tottenham17%
Manchester United60%
Draw22%
Tottenham18%
Manchester United63%
Draw20%
Tottenham17%
Manchester United56%
Draw22%
Tottenham23%
Manchester United63%
Draw20%
Tottenham17%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
12°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 19 km/h
- Humidity 62%
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 145
Team strength
Manchester UnitedTottenham
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
72
AttackIn forecast
56
80
DefenceIn forecast
74
66
Form indexContext
27
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester UnitedTottenham
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.60
60%
Scored inContext
20%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
22.60
ShotsContext
14.20
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
25%
On target shareContext
27%
12.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
54%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
3%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.40
10.60
Shots allowedContext
15.20
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.60
BlocksContext
4.20
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
63%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
567
PassesContext
546
501
Accurate passesContext
482
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.80
FoulsContext
13.20
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
20.30
ShotsContext
13.70
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
30%
On target shareContext
25%
12.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
61%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
6%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.60
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.50
BlocksContext
3.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
71%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
519
PassesContext
501
451
Accurate passesContext
435
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.40
FoulsContext
13.70
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester United
WDWLD
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 8 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
Tottenham
LLDDL
Rest21.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 27 · 2 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester United |
Tottenham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20Premier League 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 21.2Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
1S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
6L. Martínez
5J. Maguire
15L. Yoro
37K. Mainoo
18Y. Tielemans
10Matheus Cunha
8Bruno Fernandes
16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
31A. Kinský(G)
13I. Udogie
5M. Senesi
6J. van Hecke
14A. Gray
16S. Tonali
15L. Bergvall
17Savinho
8C. Gallagher
20M. Kudus
19D. Solanke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester United
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −35.3% · Defence line −10.2% of weighted minutes
- ATT M. Rashford Starter 6.79 Att −17.1%
- MID K. Mainoo Rotation 6.99 Att −3.9% Def −2.4%
- ATT A. Diallo Rotation 6.87 Att −7.3%
- ATT B. Šeško Rotation 6.82 Att −5.6%
- DEF P. Dorgu Rotation 6.88 Def −3.1%
- DEF N. Mazraoui Rotation 6.77 Def −2.5%
Tottenham
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.13 goals
Attack line −11.2% · Defence line −38.3% of weighted minutes
- DEF J. van Hecke Starter 7.10 Def −13.3%
- DEF M. van de Ven Starter 6.71 Def −11.2%
- DEF Pedro Porro Starter 6.95 Def −10.2%
- MID X. Simons Starter 7.00 Att −4.4% Def −3.4%
- ATT Richarlison Rotation 6.74 Att −4.0%
- ATT W. Odobert Rotation 6.81 Att −2.6%
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester United+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Tottenham-0.3 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Manchester United · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Tottenham · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Manchester United | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings
3 Manchester United wins3 draws4 Tottenham wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 7 Feb 2026Manchester United2–0Tottenham
- 8 Nov 2025Tottenham2–2Manchester United
- 21 May 2025Tottenham1–0Manchester United
- 16 Feb 2025Tottenham1–0Manchester United
- 29 Sep 2024Manchester United0–3Tottenham
- 14 Jan 2024Manchester United2–2Tottenham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.00 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 80% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.00 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester United | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.20 | 7.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 12.20 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 7.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.56 | 11.80 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 145 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 3.82
Red cards0.13league 0.13
Cards 5+46%league 42%
Fouls21.2league 23.0
Penalties0.21league 0.16
Home wins48%league 38%
Manchester United15 with this referee
Record7-6-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.5
Pens for · against3 · 3
Reds1
- D9 May 26A · Sunderland0–03
- D20 Mar 26A · Bournemouth2–23
- D7 Jan 26A · Burnley2–20
- W4 Oct 25H · Sunderland2–01
- W14 Sep 24A · Southampton3–04
Tottenham13 with this referee
Record8-2-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L19 May 26A · Chelsea1–23
- D18 Apr 26H · Brighton2–23
- D4 Jan 26H · Sunderland1–12
- L29 Nov 25H · Fulham1–23
- W23 Dec 23H · Everton2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester United5 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Tottenham5 games · scored 2 · conceded 8
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
