Manchester United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Manchester United
12th · 5 pts · 5 played
LWDLD
1–1Full time
Tottenham
20th · 2 pts · 5 played
LLDDL
Manchester United63.0%fair odds 1.59
Draw20.4%fair odds 4.90
Tottenham16.6%fair odds 6.02
Expected goals2.22 – 1.06total 3.28
Likeliest score2–19.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Tottenham
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Manchester United ↓ · Tottenham → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Manchester United goals, columns Tottenham goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%10.17
- 1–19.3%10.71
- 2–09.2%10.83
- 1–07.9%12.72
- 3–17.3%13.77
- 3–06.8%14.66
- 2–25.2%19.11
- 1–24.7%21.18
- 0–04.2%23.65
- 4–14.0%24.84
Winning margin
21.6%
Manchester United by 3+
fair 4.64
19.0%
Manchester United by 2
fair 5.26
22.4%
Manchester United by 1
fair 4.46
20.4%
Draw
fair 4.90
10.5%
Tottenham by 1
fair 9.51
4.4%
Tottenham by 2
fair 22.81
1.7%
Tottenham by 3+
fair 58.34
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
Manchester United goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
18%4+
Tottenham goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United win | 63.0% | 62.3% | +0.7 pp |
| Draw | 20.4% | 21.0% | -0.6 pp |
| Tottenham win | 16.6% | 16.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 61.4% | +2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.8% | 57.2% | +1.7 pp |
| Expected goals Manchester United | 2.22 | 2.14 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Tottenham | 1.06 | 1.03 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Manchester United win63.0%1.59
- Draw20.4%4.90
- Tottenham win16.6%6.02
- Double chance Manchester United or draw83.4%1.20
- Double chance Manchester United or Tottenham79.6%1.26
- Double chance Tottenham or draw37.0%2.70
- Draw no bet Manchester United79.1%1.26
- Draw no bet Tottenham20.9%4.79
Goals
- Over 0.595.8%1.04
- Over 1.584.4%1.19
- Over 2.563.7%1.57
- Over 3.541.6%2.41
- Over 4.523.4%4.27
- Under 1.515.6%6.40
- Under 2.536.3%2.75
- Under 3.558.4%1.71
Both teams to score
- Yes58.8%1.70
- No41.2%2.43
- Yes and over 2.549.5%2.02
- Manchester United win and yes32.7%3.06
- Draw and yes16.2%6.19
- Tottenham win and yes9.9%10.05
Team goals
- Manchester United over 0.589.1%1.12
- Manchester United over 1.564.9%1.54
- Manchester United over 2.538.2%2.62
- Tottenham over 0.565.5%1.53
- Tottenham over 1.528.8%3.47
- Tottenham over 2.59.3%10.80
- Manchester United clean sheet34.5%2.90
- Tottenham clean sheet10.9%9.18
- Manchester United win to nil30.3%3.30
- Tottenham win to nil6.7%14.99
Handicap
- Manchester United −1.540.6%2.46
- Manchester United −2.521.6%4.64
- Tottenham +1.559.4%1.68
- Tottenham +2.578.4%1.27
- Tottenham −1.56.1%16.40
- Manchester United +1.593.9%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored55
Favourite won41.8%
Avg chance given to result37.9%
1X2 Brier0.649
Over 2.5 called right54.5%
BTTS called right58.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.5% | 14.3% |
| 40–50% | 19 | 44.6% | 47.4% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 55.1% | 29.4% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 64.7% | 55.6% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 81.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 43 of 55 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6823 | 0.6562 |
| Avg chance given to result | 35.7% | 37.1% |
| Favourite won | 39.5% | 39.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 43 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 5 of 55 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.