Manchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester United were clear favourites.
Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 37). Absences weigh more on Manchester United. Manchester United had 4 days of rest, Wolves 3.2 and had to travel 100 km.
Away travel100 kmRest days4 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester United69%
Draw19%
Wolves12%
Manchester United68%
Draw20%
Wolves12%
Manchester United69%
Draw19%
Wolves12%
Manchester United61%
Draw22%
Wolves17%
Manchester United67%
Draw20%
Wolves13%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeThomas Bramall
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 96
Team strength
Manchester United
Wolves
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
72
AttackIn forecast
41
80
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWolves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester UnitedWolves
1.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.56
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.17
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
83%
Scored inContext
44%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.17
ShotsContext
8.67
5.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
35%
On target shareContext
33%
11.12
Shots in the boxContext
5.71
66%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
1.73
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.39
Shots allowedContext
13.67
3.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
3.44
BlocksContext
4.75
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.94
59%
Save rateContext
60%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
453
PassesContext
385
370
Accurate passesContext
307
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.64
10.18
FoulsContext
14.33
11.44
Fouls sufferedContext
9.78
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
90%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.90
ShotsContext
7.40
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.78
37%
On target shareContext
34%
11.56
Shots in the boxContext
4.89
62%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.20
Shots allowedContext
15.00
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
4.33
BlocksContext
5.33
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
56%
Save rateContext
61%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
471
PassesContext
364
388
Accurate passesContext
289
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.60
9.89
FoulsContext
15.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester United
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km227 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Wolves
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel100 km216 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester United |
Wolves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Premier League 2025-2026, 26 Dec | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 100 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 227 km | 216 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.7 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
6L. Martínez
26A. Heaven
2Diogo Dalot
18Casemiro
25M. Ugarte
13P. Dorgu
10Matheus Cunha
11J. Zirkzee
30B. Šeško
Wolves
Confirmed XI
1José Sá(G)
37L. Krejčí
2M. Doherty
15Y. Mosquera
3Hugo Bueno
36Mateus Mané
8João Gomes
10J. Arias
38J. Tchatchoua
11H. Hwang
14T. Arokodare
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester United
Scores -0.10 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Wolves
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester United-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Wolves+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester United · Home
1.89points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-2
- Scored
- 1.89
- Conceded
- 1.33
Wolves · Away
0.11points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-8
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Manchester United | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 4–4 H | L 0–1 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Everton | L 0–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Brighton | W 4–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 A | L 0–4 H |
| Burnley | W 3–2 H | L 2–3 H |
| Fulham | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 25 of 48 · 1.56 per game | 2 of 48 · 0.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
7 Manchester United wins0 draws3 Wolves wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.90
Over 2.530%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 8 Dec 2025Wolves1–4Manchester United
- 20 Apr 2025Manchester United0–1Wolves
- 26 Dec 2024Wolves2–0Manchester United
- 1 Feb 2024Wolves3–4Manchester United
- 14 Aug 2023Manchester United1–0Wolves
- 13 May 2023Manchester United2–0Wolves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester United | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.78 | 0.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 2.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.72 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 72% | 44% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 56% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.80 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester United | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 2.94 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 6.63 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 9.57 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 10/18 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 5/18 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.44 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.72 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 11/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 8/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Manchester United | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 2.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 6.89 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.22 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.80 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Bramall 96 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 3.71
Red cards0.15league 0.11
Cards 5+39%league 38%
Fouls22.0league 21.5
Penalties0.18league 0.21
Home wins49%league 47%
Manchester United2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W25 May 25H · Aston Villa2–02
- W16 Mar 25A · Leicester3–00
Wolves6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L23 Aug 25A · Bournemouth0–15
- W9 Nov 24H · Southampton2–01
- L11 May 24H · Crystal Palace1–33
- D2 Apr 24A · Burnley1–12
- W30 Dec 23H · Everton3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester United18 games · scored 32 · conceded 28
4
2
0-15
5
3
16-30
7
4
31-45
5
7
46-60
3
4
61-75
8
8
76-90
Wolves18 games · scored 10 · conceded 39
1
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
8
31-45
2
3
46-60
12
61-75
2
8
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 21 · conceded 16
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 5 · conceded 23
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
11
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
