Moreirense vs Estrela – 2 May 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 32 Sat, May 2 · 15:30 Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos

Moreirense 8th · 39 pts · 31 played LLDWL

3–2Full time

Estrela 15th · 28 pts · 31 played WLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Moreirense were slight favourites.

Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estrela. Moreirense had 6.9 days of rest, Estrela 5.9 and had to travel 302 km.

Away travel302 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Moreirense42%

Draw30%

Estrela29%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.01

Moreirense54%

Draw25%

Estrela21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02

Moreirense42%

Draw30%

Estrela29%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.01

Moreirense35%

Draw30%

Estrela35%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.14

Moreirense43%

Draw28%

Estrela29%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.08

Over 2.5 40% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro

Cards per match 5.7
Penalties per match 0.52
Matches 56

Team strength

Moreirense

Estrela

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

25 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

17 AttackIn forecast 24

27 DefenceIn forecast 27

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Moreirense

Estrela

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.45 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.65

0.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

71% Scored inContext 55%

26% Clean sheetsContext 23%

8.29 ShotsContext 10.90

3.27 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

38% On target shareContext 33%

4.90 Shots in the boxContext 5.84

57% Box shareContext 52%

13% ConversionContext 10%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.23

12.71 Shots allowedContext 12.94

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.45

3.43 BlocksContext 4.00

3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.03

68% Save rateContext 66%

48% PossessionIn forecast 48%

408 PassesContext 350

338 Accurate passesContext 283

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.76

13.58 FoulsContext 13.77

14.81 Fouls sufferedContext 14.84

2.48 Yellow cardsContext 2.48

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.43

60% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

6.80 ShotsContext 12.20

2.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

40% On target shareContext 33%

4.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

57% Box shareContext 59%

10% ConversionContext 7%

1.40 OffsidesContext 2.78

13.40 Shots allowedContext 13.10

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.70 BlocksContext 5.11

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

72% Save rateContext 65%

44% PossessionIn forecast 51%

381 PassesContext 376

309 Accurate passesContext 308

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.81

13.50 FoulsContext 12.90

14.20 Fouls sufferedContext 15.30

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Moreirense

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km608 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estrela

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel302 km513 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Moreirense	Estrela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr	5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	608 km	513 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	9.2	9.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Moreirense Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22Caio Secco(G)

2Diogo Travassos 26Maracás 66G. Dambi Batista 70Fabiano

21Rodri Alonso 25Afonso Assis

78Landerson 8M. Stjepanović 10Kiko Bondoso

11Alan

Estrela Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

24B. Langa 83Otávio 30Luan Patrick 21M. Scholze

63A. Sola 19Paulo Moreira

10I. Stoica 11Jovane Cabral 99A. Marcus

9Rodrigo Pinho

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Moreirense Absences are shown before kick-off

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Moreirense+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estrela+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Moreirense · Home 1.53points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 7-2-6
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.27

Estrela · Away 0.73points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-8
Scored: 0.87
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Moreirense	Estrela
Benfica	L 1–4 AL 0–4 H	L 0–4 AL 0–1 H
Estoril	W 1–0 HD 3–3 A	L 0–5 HD 1–1 A
Famalicao	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	W 3–2 A
SC Braga	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	D 3–3 H
Arouca	L 0–1 HW 2–0 A	L 0–1 AW 3–1 H
FC Porto	L 0–3 AL 1–2 H	L 1–2 HL 1–3 A
Nacional	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Casa Pia	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	W 4–0 HW 5–3 A
Sporting CP	L 0–3 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A
Rio Ave	W 2–1 AW 3–1 H	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
GIL Vicente	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 HL 0–2 A
Guimaraes	L 0–1 AW 2–0 H	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H
Santa Clara	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A	W 1–0 HD 0–0 A
Alverca	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
Tondela	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
AVS	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
Points	38 of 90 · 1.27 per game	27 of 90 · 0.90 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Moreirense wins3 draws1 Estrela wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.540% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 20%

20 Dec 2025Estrela0–0Moreirense
2 Mar 2025Moreirense1–1Estrela
28 Sep 2024Estrela2–1Moreirense
7 Apr 2024Moreirense2–2Estrela
11 Nov 2023Estrela0–1Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Moreirense	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.10
Conceded per game	1.45	1.65
Match goals	2.55	2.74	2.29
Over 1.5	74%	74%
Over 2.5	52%	52%	40%
Over 3.5	19%	35%
Both teams scored	48%	45%	47%
Clean sheets	26%	23%
Failed to score	29%	45%
Games	31	31

	Moreirense	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	0.90
Conceded per game	1.60	1.40
Match goals	2.30	2.30	2.29
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	40%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	47%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Moreirense	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	3.93	4.00
Corners conceded	4.61	5.35
Match total	8.54	9.35	9.34
Over 8.5	50% 14/28	50% 13/26
Over 9.5	39% 11/28	42% 11/26
Over 10.5	11% 3/28	38% 10/26
Cards
Cards	2.58	2.61
Opponent cards	2.06	2.74
Match total	4.64	5.35	5.08
Over 3.5	61% 19/31	77% 24/31
Over 4.5	45% 14/31	71% 22/31

	Moreirense	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	3.11	4.88
Corners conceded	5.78	6.00
Match total	8.89	10.88	9.34
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.20
Opponent cards	2.10	3.00
Match total	4.20	5.20	5.08
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 56 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.39league 4.82

Red cards0.30league 0.23

Cards 5+68%league 57%

Fouls29.3league 26.8

Penalties0.52league 0.44

Home wins46%league 41%

Moreirense6 with this referee

Record1-3-2 Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.5 Pens for · against2 · 4 Reds1

D7 Dec 25A · Estoril3–33
L4 Oct 25A · Nacional2–34
W10 Aug 25H · Alverca2–13
D4 Jan 25H · AVS1–13
D11 Dec 23A · GIL Vicente1–13

Estrela8 with this referee

Record4-0-4 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.4 Pens for · against3 · 1 Reds2

W20 Mar 26H · Casa Pia4–03
W1 Nov 25A · Casa Pia5–33
W27 Sep 25H · AVS3–03
W6 Apr 25A · Nacional1–02
L9 Feb 25A · Casa Pia0–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.