Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 21 Sat, Feb 7 · 15:30
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards GIL Vicente. Moreirense had 7.8 days of rest, GIL Vicente 6 and had to travel 28 km.
Away travel28 kmRest days7.8 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Moreirense35%
Draw29%
GIL Vicente36%
Moreirense41%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente32%
Moreirense35%
Draw29%
GIL Vicente36%
Moreirense29%
Draw28%
GIL Vicente43%
Moreirense35%
Draw28%
GIL Vicente36%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva
- Cards per match 7.1
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 10
Team strength
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
17
AttackIn forecast
32
27
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseGIL Vicente
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.45
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
75%
Scored inContext
75%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.30
ShotsContext
13.90
3.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.65
38%
On target shareContext
34%
5.35
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
56%
Box shareContext
55%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.93
12.20
Shots allowedContext
9.90
4.32
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.16
BlocksContext
2.33
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.12
67%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
423
PassesContext
353
354
Accurate passesContext
284
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.40
FoulsContext
13.85
15.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.25
2.65
Yellow cardsContext
2.55
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.70
ShotsContext
14.30
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
39%
On target shareContext
32%
5.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
54%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.60
Shots allowedContext
8.60
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
2.70
BlocksContext
1.88
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
59%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
462
PassesContext
374
391
Accurate passesContext
305
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.70
FoulsContext
12.50
16.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km15 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GIL Vicente
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel28 km85 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Jan | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 28 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 15 km | 85 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
17Álvaro Martínez
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
25Afonso Assis
21Rodri Alonso
78Landerson
11Alan
2Diogo Travassos
99Maranhão
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
30Lucão(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
10Luís Esteves
5F. Cáseres
7T. Touré
95Santi García
77Murilo
29Carlos Eduardo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
2.11points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-2
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.22
GIL Vicente · Away
1.40points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-2
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 0.90
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Alverca | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Tondela | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| AVS | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Estrela | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Benfica | L 0–4 H | L 1–2 A |
| Estoril | D 3–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Famalicao | D 2–2 H | W 5–0 HD 0–0 A |
| SC Braga | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Arouca | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Nacional | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Casa Pia | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Rio Ave | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 30 of 57 · 1.58 per game | 31 of 57 · 1.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Moreirense wins1 draws2 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.20
Over 2.520%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 29 Aug 2025GIL Vicente2–0Moreirense
- 6 Apr 2025GIL Vicente0–1Moreirense
- 8 Nov 2024Moreirense3–2GIL Vicente
- 20 Apr 2024Moreirense0–1GIL Vicente
- 11 Dec 2023GIL Vicente1–1Moreirense
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.45 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.65 | 2.25 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 35% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 35% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Moreirense | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.39 | 5.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.94 | 4.53 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 10.41 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 8/18 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 7/18 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 6% 1/18 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.85 | |
| Match total | 4.85 | 5.60 | 5.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 13/20 | 80% 16/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 10/20 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Moreirense | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 7.89 | 10.50 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.50 | 5.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.80league 4.94
Red cards0.30league 0.29
Cards 5+90%league 58%
Fouls28.2league 27.1
Penalties0.30league 0.47
Home wins50%league 40%
Moreirense2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.4.5 · 4.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D29 Nov 25H · Famalicao2–24
- W17 Aug 25A · Santa Clara1–05
GIL Vicente1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.6.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Aug 25A · Nacional2–06
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Moreirense20 games · scored 26 · conceded 27
6
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
6
7
46-60
6
4
61-75
5
8
76-90
GIL Vicente20 games · scored 29 · conceded 16
5
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
10
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
