Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 13 · 15:30
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
Moreirense were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Moreirense had 14.8 days of rest, Rio Ave 12.8 and had to travel 34 km.
Away travel34 kmRest days14.8 · 12.8Matches / 14d0 · 1
Moreirense46%
Draw27%
Rio Ave26%
Moreirense47%
Draw26%
Rio Ave27%
Moreirense46%
Draw27%
Rio Ave26%
Moreirense39%
Draw28%
Rio Ave33%
Moreirense47%
Draw26%
Rio Ave27%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMarcio Torres
Team strength
Moreirense
Rio Ave
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
17
AttackIn forecast
18
27
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseRio Ave
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
75%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.75
ShotsContext
12.67
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
26%
On target shareContext
47%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
63%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
1.33
OffsidesContext
—
9.75
Shots allowedContext
15.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.33
3.33
BlocksContext
3.33
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
75%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
416
PassesContext
360
349
Accurate passesContext
292
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.94
14.75
FoulsContext
13.67
14.25
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
3.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.80
ShotsContext
11.80
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
38%
On target shareContext
40%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
54%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.63
11.50
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.67
BlocksContext
3.30
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
67%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
366
PassesContext
362
301
Accurate passesContext
294
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.93
14.00
FoulsContext
14.40
15.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rio Ave
Rest12.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel34 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Aug | 12.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 34 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
22Caio Secco(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
44Marcelo
76Dinis Pinto
15Vasco Sousa
8M. Stjepanović
10Kiko Bondoso
11Alan
7Cedric Teguia
95Guilherme Schettine
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
6N. Abbey
4J. Panzo
23F. Petrasso
3N. Athanasiou
80O. Pohlmann
54G. Liavas
17M. Vrousai
18D. Špikić
9Clayton
11André Luiz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Rio Ave · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Moreirense wins1 draws2 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 13 Apr 2025Moreirense0–2Rio Ave
- 30 Nov 2024Rio Ave3–2Moreirense
- 2 Mar 2024Moreirense0–0Rio Ave
- 1 Oct 2023Rio Ave0–4Moreirense
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 67% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
| Moreirense | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 67% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 8.00 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.75 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.75 | 5.33 | 5.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Moreirense | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.89 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 7.45 | 8.80 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 5.10 | 5.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Moreirense4 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Rio Ave3 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
