NAC Breda vs Excelsior – 6 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Fri, Feb 6 · 19:00 Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

NAC Breda 17th · 16 pts · 21 played LDLDD

First leg0–1 0–2Full time

Excelsior 13th · 23 pts · 21 played LDDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

NAC Breda were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards NAC Breda. NAC Breda had 7 days of rest, Excelsior 5.3 and had to travel 43 km.

Away travel43 kmRest days7 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

NAC Breda41%

Draw27%

Excelsior32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.25

NAC Breda40%

Draw27%

Excelsior33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.26

NAC Breda41%

Draw27%

Excelsior31%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.23

NAC Breda34%

Draw27%

Excelsior39%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.40

NAC Breda41%

Draw27%

Excelsior32%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.22

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Breda)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 91

Team strength

NAC Breda

Excelsior

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

14 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

19 AttackIn forecast 21

19 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NAC Breda

Excelsior

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.05

1.62 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.76

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.21

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.85

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

62% Scored inContext 76%

10% Clean sheetsContext 19%

12.81 ShotsContext 11.19

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.71

32% On target shareContext 33%

8.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

62% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 9%

1.93 OffsidesContext 1.36

12.81 Shots allowedContext 15.57

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.86

2.90 BlocksContext 4.57

3.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

70% Save rateContext 68%

49% PossessionIn forecast 45%

398 PassesContext 380

316 Accurate passesContext 296

79% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.75

11.14 FoulsContext 12.48

12.81 Fouls sufferedContext 8.62

1.76 Yellow cardsContext 1.48

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

50% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.90 ShotsContext 9.70

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

29% On target shareContext 33%

8.67 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

59% Box shareContext 69%

7% ConversionContext 12%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.71

12.00 Shots allowedContext 14.10

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.44 BlocksContext 4.30

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

71% Save rateContext 67%

51% PossessionIn forecast 45%

415 PassesContext 398

332 Accurate passesContext 312

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.78

10.00 FoulsContext 11.50

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.30

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NAC Breda

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km102 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Excelsior

Rest5.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel43 km337 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	NAC Breda	Excelsior
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Jan	5.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	43 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	102 km	337 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

99D. Bielica(G)

22R. Hillen 12L. Greiml 3D. Odoi

21J. Candelaria 14K. Sowah 16M. Balard 32J. Talvitie

10M. Nassoh

9M. Soumano 7C. Brym

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. van Gassel(G)

12A. Zagré 3R. Meissen 4C. Widell 2Ilias Bronkhorst

20L. Hartjes 14L. Schouten

7E. Hansson 23I. Yegoian 11G. de Regt

10N. Naujoks

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

NAC Breda Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Excelsior Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

NAC Breda-0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Excelsior+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

NAC Breda · Home 1.09points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-5
Scored: 1.27
Conceded: 1.45

Excelsior · Away 0.90points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.30

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	NAC Breda	Excelsior
Twente	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
PSV Eindhoven	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H	L 1–5 AL 1–2 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 3–4 HL 0–3 A	L 0–5 A
Groningen	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H	L 0–2 H
Telstar	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Utrecht	D 1–1 H	L 1–4 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 H
FC Volendam	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 A
Heerenveen	D 3–3 A	L 1–2 A
PEC Zwolle	D 2–2 H	W 2–1 H
Ajax	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A
Heracles	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
Feyenoord	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 H
Points	16 of 60 · 0.80 per game	20 of 60 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 NAC Breda wins0 draws1 Excelsior wins

Goals per game0.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

29 Nov 2025Excelsior1–0NAC Breda

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	NAC Breda	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.05
Conceded per game	1.62	1.76
Match goals	2.71	2.81	2.70
Over 1.5	67%	76%
Over 2.5	57%	62%	51%
Over 3.5	29%	29%
Both teams scored	57%	62%	55%
Clean sheets	10%	19%
Failed to score	38%	24%
Games	21	21

	NAC Breda	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.20
Conceded per game	1.50	1.60
Match goals	2.40	2.80	2.70
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	NAC Breda	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	5.19	4.10
Corners conceded	4.00	5.29
Match total	9.19	9.39	10.22
Over 8.5	57% 12/21	62% 13/21
Over 9.5	43% 9/21	38% 8/21
Over 10.5	43% 9/21	29% 6/21
Cards
Cards	1.95	1.62
Opponent cards	2.05	1.33
Match total	4.00	2.95	3.60
Over 3.5	52% 11/21	33% 7/21
Over 4.5	43% 9/21	24% 5/21

	NAC Breda	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	3.80
Corners conceded	4.30	6.30
Match total	10.50	10.10	10.22
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.70
Opponent cards	1.90	1.40
Match total	3.90	3.10	3.60
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 91 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.02league 3.39

Red cards0.11league 0.20

Cards 5+42%league 32%

Fouls23.3league 21.7

Penalties0.32league 0.26

Home wins47%league 44%

NAC Breda4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D10 Jan 26A · Groningen0–02
L29 Nov 25A · Excelsior0–11
D7 Mar 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–11
W7 Dec 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–01

Excelsior3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W29 Nov 25H · NAC Breda1–04
L17 Feb 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–42
L25 Nov 23H · Feyenoord2–41

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.