NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
NAC Breda
14th · 9 pts · 10 played
WLLDD
1–0Full time
GO Ahead Eagles
11th · 13 pts · 10 played
WLDLW
NAC Breda32.0%fair odds 3.12
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.73
GO Ahead Eagles41.2%fair odds 2.43
Expected goals1.26 – 1.46total 2.73
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
GO Ahead Eagles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| NAC Breda ↓ · GO Ahead Eagles → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NAC Breda goals, columns GO Ahead Eagles goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.85
- 0–18.9%11.18
- 1–28.9%11.30
- 2–17.6%13.09
- 1–07.6%13.10
- 0–07.2%13.90
- 0–27.0%14.26
- 2–25.6%17.90
- 2–05.2%19.15
- 1–34.3%23.17
Winning margin
4.7%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 21.24
9.3%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 10.78
18.0%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 5.55
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.73
21.0%
GO Ahead Eagles by 1
fair 4.77
12.5%
GO Ahead Eagles by 2
fair 8.03
7.7%
GO Ahead Eagles by 3+
fair 12.91
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
NAC Breda goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
9%3
4%4+
GO Ahead Eagles goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 32.0% | 32.0% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.4% | -0.6 pp |
| GO Ahead Eagles win | 41.2% | 40.6% | +0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.3% | 48.8% | +2.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.7% | 53.9% | +1.9 pp |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 1.26 | 1.22 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles | 1.46 | 1.41 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- NAC Breda win32.0%3.12
- Draw26.8%3.73
- GO Ahead Eagles win41.2%2.43
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw58.8%1.70
- Double chance NAC Breda or GO Ahead Eagles73.2%1.37
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw68.0%1.47
- Draw no bet NAC Breda43.7%2.29
- Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles56.3%1.78
Goals
- Over 0.592.8%1.08
- Over 1.576.2%1.31
- Over 2.551.3%1.95
- Over 3.529.1%3.43
- Over 4.514.1%7.10
- Under 1.523.8%4.21
- Under 2.548.7%2.05
- Under 3.570.9%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes55.7%1.79
- No44.3%2.26
- Yes and over 2.543.0%2.33
- NAC Breda win and yes16.0%6.23
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- GO Ahead Eagles win and yes20.1%4.98
Team goals
- NAC Breda over 0.571.7%1.39
- NAC Breda over 1.536.0%2.78
- NAC Breda over 2.513.4%7.44
- GO Ahead Eagles over 0.576.8%1.30
- GO Ahead Eagles over 1.543.0%2.33
- GO Ahead Eagles over 2.518.2%5.50
- NAC Breda clean sheet23.2%4.32
- GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet28.3%3.53
- NAC Breda win to nil16.0%6.26
- GO Ahead Eagles win to nil21.1%4.74
Handicap
- NAC Breda −1.514.0%7.15
- NAC Breda −2.54.7%21.24
- GO Ahead Eagles +1.586.0%1.16
- GO Ahead Eagles +2.595.3%1.05
- GO Ahead Eagles −1.520.2%4.95
- NAC Breda +1.579.8%1.25
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored92
Favourite won54.3%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.549
Over 2.5 called right70.7%
BTTS called right62.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.0% | 21.4% |
| 40–50% | 29 | 44.3% | 41.4% |
| 50–60% | 25 | 55.7% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 63.7% | 78.6% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 75.1% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 81.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 70 of 92 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5465 | 0.5134 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.1% | 45.9% |
| Favourite won | 52.9% | 60.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 70 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 92 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.