NAC Breda vs GO Ahead Eagles – 1 Nov 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Nov 1 · 17:45 Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

NAC Breda 14th · 9 pts · 10 played WLLDD

1–0Full time

GO Ahead Eagles 11th · 13 pts · 10 played WLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.

GO Ahead Eagles were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 15). Absences weigh more on GO Ahead Eagles. NAC Breda had 8 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 5.9 and had to travel 121 km.

Away travel121 kmRest days8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

NAC Breda32%

Draw27%

GO Ahead Eagles41%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.46

NAC Breda31%

Draw27%

GO Ahead Eagles42%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.45

NAC Breda31%

Draw26%

GO Ahead Eagles42%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.51

NAC Breda26%

Draw26%

GO Ahead Eagles49%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.64

NAC Breda32%

Draw27%

GO Ahead Eagles41%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.41

Over 2.5 51% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Breda)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler

Cards per match 3.1
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 40

Team strength

NAC Breda

GO Ahead Eagles

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

14 Current StrengthIn forecast 24

19 AttackIn forecast 29

19 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NAC Breda

GO Ahead Eagles

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.43

70% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.20 ShotsContext 11.90

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

36% On target shareContext 43%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.38

64% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 14%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.40 Shots allowedContext 18.80

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

3.40 BlocksContext 7.22

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.10

67% Save rateContext 73%

47% PossessionIn forecast 52%

383 PassesContext 429

301 Accurate passesContext 356

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.91

12.40 FoulsContext 8.70

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.50

70% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.20 ShotsContext 11.40

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

36% On target shareContext 47%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

64% Box shareContext 71%

11% ConversionContext 15%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.33

14.40 Shots allowedContext 17.30

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

3.40 BlocksContext 6.75

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.40

67% Save rateContext 82%

47% PossessionIn forecast 51%

383 PassesContext 421

301 Accurate passesContext 350

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.99

12.40 FoulsContext 10.10

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.22

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NAC Breda

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km343 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

GO Ahead Eagles

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel121 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	NAC Breda	GO Ahead Eagles
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Oct	5.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 26 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	121 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	343 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99D. Bielica(G)

4B. Kemper 22R. Hillen 20F. Oldrup Jensen 2B. Lucassen

90L. Holtby 16M. Balard

14K. Sowah 8C. Leemans 32J. Talvitie

17S. van Hooijdonk

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

GO Ahead Eagles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22J. De Busser(G)

29A. Adelgaard 4J. Kramer 21M. Meulensteen 2M. Deijl

34Y. Rahmouni 6C. Twigt

17M. Suray 24K. Goudmijn 11O. Sivertsen

9M. Smit

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

NAC Breda Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

GO Ahead Eagles Scores -0.08 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

NAC Breda+0.7 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
GO Ahead Eagles-1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

NAC Breda · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.40

GO Ahead Eagles · Away 1.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-2
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	NAC Breda	GO Ahead Eagles
Heerenveen	D 3–3 A	D 2–2 A
PEC Zwolle	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
Ajax	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–3 A	D 1–1 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 A
Points	5 of 15 · 1.00 per game	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 NAC Breda wins1 draws1 GO Ahead Eagles wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

12 Apr 2025NAC Breda1–1GO Ahead Eagles
21 Dec 2024GO Ahead Eagles2–1NAC Breda

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	NAC Breda	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.70
Conceded per game	1.90	1.60
Match goals	3.20	3.30	2.73
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	51%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

	NAC Breda	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.70
Conceded per game	1.90	1.20
Match goals	3.20	2.90	2.73
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	NAC Breda	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	6.30
Corners conceded	4.00	5.90
Match total	8.50	12.20	9.91
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	90% 9/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.10
Opponent cards	2.20	2.10
Match total	3.90	3.20	3.58
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

	NAC Breda	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	5.10
Corners conceded	4.00	6.30
Match total	8.50	11.40	9.91
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.10
Opponent cards	2.20	2.10
Match total	3.90	3.20	3.58
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 40 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.88league 3.37

Red cards0.23league 0.20

Cards 5+25%league 33%

Fouls21.9league 22.3

Penalties0.23league 0.24

Home wins43%league 48%

NAC Breda5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.2 Pens for · against0 · 0

W20 Sep 25H · Heracles2–11
L10 May 25A · Fortuna Sittard0–12
D15 Feb 25H · Feyenoord0–02
L25 Jan 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–31
W18 Aug 24H · Ajax2–10

GO Ahead Eagles2 with this referee

Record0-2-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against2 · 0

D2 Feb 25H · Twente2–21
D11 Feb 24H · PEC Zwolle1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.