Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 24). Nacional had 6 days of rest, Famalicao 6 and had to travel 1,222 km.
Away travel1,222 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nacional33%
Draw28%
Famalicao39%
Nacional34%
Draw27%
Famalicao39%
Nacional33%
Draw28%
Famalicao39%
Nacional27%
Draw27%
Famalicao46%
Nacional34%
Draw27%
Famalicao39%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 10
Team strength
Nacional
Famalicao
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
15
AttackIn forecast
24
13
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFamalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalFamalicao
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.44
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
78%
Scored inContext
78%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
10.78
ShotsContext
12.89
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
31%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
56%
Box shareContext
75%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.89
Shots allowedContext
10.11
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.78
BlocksContext
2.75
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
60%
Save rateContext
87%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
283
PassesContext
363
207
Accurate passesContext
291
73%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.98
14.67
FoulsContext
18.22
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
16.33
2.56
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.80
ShotsContext
13.40
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
38%
On target shareContext
30%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
54%
Box shareContext
76%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.60
Shots allowedContext
9.60
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.60
BlocksContext
2.67
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
56%
Save rateContext
87%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
283
PassesContext
362
210
Accurate passesContext
291
74%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.99
14.70
FoulsContext
17.80
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
16.10
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,909 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Famalicao
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,222 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Famalicao |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,222 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,909 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
2João Aurélio
28Liziero
6Matheus Dias
11Paulinho Bóia
22Filipe Soares
7Witi
9J. Ramírez
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
3L. Realpe
55I. Ba
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
14M. De Amorim
6T. van de Looi
77A. Joujou
20Gustavo Sá
7Sorriso
12S. Elisor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.50
Famalicao · Away
2.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 1–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Nacional wins1 draws0 Famalicao wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 1 Mar 2025Nacional2–1Famalicao
- 29 Sep 2024Famalicao0–0Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 0.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 1.56 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 22% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Nacional | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 0.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 1.56 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 22% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 10.45 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.89 | 2.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.56 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 5.45 | 4.67 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 89% 8/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 89% 8/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Nacional | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 11.10 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.30 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.00 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.60league 5.13
Red cards0.30league 0.26
Cards 5+70%league 62%
Fouls28.0league 27.7
Penalties0.50league 0.46
Home wins30%league 38%
Nacional1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D17 Aug 25A · Rio Ave1–14
Famalicao1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Sep 25H · Rio Ave0–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional9 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Famalicao9 games · scored 10 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
