Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Famalicao were slight favourites.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Famalicao. Nacional had 7 days of rest, Famalicao 5.8 and had to travel 1,222 km.
Away travel1,222 kmRest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nacional28%
Draw25%
Famalicao47%
Nacional30%
Draw26%
Famalicao44%
Nacional28%
Draw25%
Famalicao47%
Nacional22%
Draw24%
Famalicao54%
Nacional28%
Draw26%
Famalicao46%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
RefereeGustavo Fernandes Correia
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Nacional
Famalicao
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
15
AttackIn forecast
24
13
DefenceIn forecast
36
13
Form indexContext
13
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFamalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalFamalicao
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
67%
Scored inContext
67%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
10.50
ShotsContext
9.17
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.83
27%
On target shareContext
31%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
4.33
58%
Box shareContext
47%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.20
OffsidesContext
1.33
15.67
Shots allowedContext
11.50
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.17
3.20
BlocksContext
2.67
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
64%
Save rateContext
63%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
407
PassesContext
474
332
Accurate passesContext
405
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.17
FoulsContext
12.00
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.40
ShotsContext
10.00
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
29%
On target shareContext
33%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
5.56
58%
Box shareContext
51%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.14
OffsidesContext
1.60
15.90
Shots allowedContext
9.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.60
4.44
BlocksContext
2.67
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.78
71%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
379
PassesContext
445
303
Accurate passesContext
380
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.60
FoulsContext
11.80
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
WLLLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,944 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 13 · 3 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
Famalicao
LLDDD
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,222 km603 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 13 · 3 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -4.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Famalicao |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 5.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,222 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,944 km | 603 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22 | 23.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1R. Bellucci(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
33Francisco Gonçalves
2D. de la Cruz de la Cruz
6Matheus Dias
12M. Song
20M. Djaló
15C. Labidi
8Miguel Baeza
9A. Obando
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
4F. van Breemen
15Víctor Rofino
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
21Tamás Szücs
8Marcos Peña
7Sorriso
14M. De Amorim
23Gil Dias
70G. Koutsias
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Famalicao · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Estrela | L 2–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| Estoril | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Santa Clara | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Nacional wins1 draws2 Famalicao wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.75
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets25% · 75%
- 21 Mar 2026Famalicao1–0Nacional
- 1 Nov 2025Nacional0–1Famalicao
- 1 Mar 2025Nacional2–1Famalicao
- 29 Sep 2024Famalicao0–0Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Nacional | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 1.80 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.25 | 9.33 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 4.50 | 4.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Nacional | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 10.20 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gustavo Fernandes Correia 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 4.04
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+100%league 42%
Fouls—league 25.1
Penalties0.00league 0.36
Home wins50%league 42%
NacionalNo previous matches with this referee.
FamalicaoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional6 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Famalicao6 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
