Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were slight favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nacional. Nacional had 7.1 days of rest, SC Braga 6.9 and had to travel 1,239 km.
Away travel1,239 kmRest days7.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nacional20%
Draw26%
SC Braga54%
Nacional19%
Draw24%
SC Braga57%
Nacional20%
Draw26%
SC Braga54%
Nacional16%
Draw23%
SC Braga61%
Nacional21%
Draw26%
SC Braga54%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDiogo Rosa
- Cards per match 7.0
- Penalties per match 0.60
- Matches 5
Team strength
Nacional
SC Braga
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
15
AttackIn forecast
42
13
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalSC Braga
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.09
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.96
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
70%
Scored inContext
87%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
11.91
ShotsContext
12.39
3.96
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.17
33%
On target shareContext
42%
7.71
Shots in the boxContext
8.57
60%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
2.19
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.04
Shots allowedContext
8.13
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.09
4.00
BlocksContext
2.30
3.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.35
68%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
311
PassesContext
593
237
Accurate passesContext
519
76%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.89
14.35
FoulsContext
11.13
11.35
Fouls sufferedContext
11.61
2.65
Yellow cardsContext
1.74
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.00
ShotsContext
10.30
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
33%
On target shareContext
42%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.63
65%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
22%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.50
Shots allowedContext
8.70
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
3.50
BlocksContext
2.10
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
71%
Save rateContext
70%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
341
PassesContext
544
268
Accurate passesContext
471
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.91
14.10
FoulsContext
11.10
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,396 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
SC Braga
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,239 km33 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,239 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,396 km | 33 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
24Lenny Vallier
33Francisco Gonçalves
34Léo Santos
16Alan Nuñez
18André Sousa
6Matheus Dias
28Liziero
11Paulinho Bóia
9J. Ramírez
27Gabriel Veron
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
14G. Lagerbielke
37A. Barišić
77Gabri Martínez
50D. Rodrigues
27F. Grillitsch
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
18Pau Víctor
10R. Zalazar
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
1.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 1.45
- Conceded
- 1.64
SC Braga · Away
1.58points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-3
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 1.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Casa Pia | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–2 AL 1–4 H | D 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Santa Clara | D 3–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Guimaraes | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| AVS | D 2–2 A | W 4–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Tondela | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Estrela | D 1–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Estoril | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Moreirense | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 18 of 66 · 0.82 per game | 42 of 66 · 1.91 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Nacional wins0 draws2 SC Braga wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 28 Sep 2025SC Braga0–1Nacional
- 21 Feb 2025SC Braga1–0Nacional
- 20 Sep 2024Nacional0–3SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 2.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 0.96 | |
| Match goals | 2.65 | 3.04 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 70% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 48% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 13% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Nacional | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.27 | 5.47 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.86 | 2.95 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 8.42 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 15/22 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 14/22 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 11/22 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.91 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 2.48 | |
| Match total | 5.34 | 4.31 | 5.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 16/23 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 65% 15/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Nacional | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 7.00 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.70 | 5.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Diogo Rosa Portugal · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.80league 4.85
Red cards0.20league 0.28
Cards 5+80%league 59%
Fouls28.6league 26.9
Penalties0.60league 0.44
Home wins80%league 43%
NacionalNo previous matches with this referee.
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional23 games · scored 27 · conceded 34
2
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
6
31-45
5
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
7
10
76-90
SC Braga23 games · scored 48 · conceded 22
8
2
0-15
12
6
16-30
9
6
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
9
3
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
3
0-15
6
3
16-30
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
