Napoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were slight favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 70). Absences weigh more on Napoli. Napoli had 7 days of rest, Inter 6.9 and had to travel 658 km.
Away travel658 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Napoli27%
Draw27%
Inter45%
Napoli29%
Draw27%
Inter44%
Napoli29%
Draw27%
Inter44%
Napoli22%
Draw26%
Inter53%
Napoli28%
Draw27%
Inter46%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 86
Team strength
Napoli
Inter
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
87
61
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
61
AttackIn forecast
91
70
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NapoliInter
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.57
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.70
86%
Scored inContext
100%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
16.43
ShotsContext
18.57
5.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.71
36%
On target shareContext
31%
11.14
Shots in the boxContext
12.57
68%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.71
Shots allowedContext
9.43
2.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
3.00
BlocksContext
3.33
1.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
65%
Save rateContext
81%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
566
PassesContext
507
500
Accurate passesContext
442
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.09
12.57
FoulsContext
15.14
12.86
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
2.24
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.80
ShotsContext
18.50
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
34%
On target shareContext
31%
9.89
Shots in the boxContext
13.10
65%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.29
12.30
Shots allowedContext
9.00
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
3.40
BlocksContext
3.00
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
60%
Save rateContext
83%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
508
PassesContext
510
445
Accurate passesContext
446
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.16
11.60
FoulsContext
14.10
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,423 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Inter
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel658 km957 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 658 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,423 km | 957 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
37L. Spinazzola
4A. Buongiorno
5Juan Jesus
22G. Di Lorenzo
8S. McTominay
11K. De Bruyne
6B. Gilmour
99F. Anguissa
21M. Politano
7David Neres
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
15F. Acerbi
25M. Akanji
32F. Dimarco
22H. Mkhitaryan
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
2D. Dumfries
10L. Martínez
14A. Bonny
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli-1.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Inter+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Inter · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Napoli | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | L 0–1 A | W 5–0 H |
| Cagliari | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Napoli wins4 draws3 Inter wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.50
Over 2.538%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 1 Mar 2025Napoli1–1Inter
- 10 Nov 2024Inter1–1Napoli
- 17 Mar 2024Inter1–1Napoli
- 3 Dec 2023Napoli0–3Inter
- 21 May 2023Napoli3–1Inter
- 4 Jan 2023Inter1–0Napoli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 2.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.71 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 71% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Napoli | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 2.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.71 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 71% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 11.43 | 9.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 2.86 | 3.00 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Napoli | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 7.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 10.44 | 9.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 2.90 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 86 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 3.78
Red cards0.21league 0.12
Cards 5+41%league 37%
Fouls24.2league 25.9
Penalties0.22league 0.25
Home wins45%league 37%
Napoli11 with this referee
Record6-2-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W27 Apr 25H · Torino2–00
- D16 Mar 25A · Venezia0–01
- D10 Nov 24A · Inter1–10
- W3 Mar 24H · Juventus2–11
- L7 Jan 24A · Torino0–33
Inter6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L16 Feb 25A · Juventus0–11
- D10 Nov 24H · Napoli1–11
- L22 Sep 24H · AC Milan1–24
- W28 Jan 23A · Cremonese2–12
- W17 Dec 21A · Salernitana5–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Napoli7 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Inter7 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 27 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
5
46-60
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
