Napoli vs Lazio – 18 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 33 Sat, Apr 18 · 17:00 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

Napoli 2nd · 66 pts · 32 played WWWWD

0–2Full time

Lazio 10th · 44 pts · 32 played WWWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli were slight favourites.

Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lazio. Napoli had 6.1 days of rest, Lazio 4.9 and had to travel 187 km.

Away travel187 kmRest days6.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Napoli52%

Draw28%

Lazio20%

Expected goals 1.49 – 0.82

Napoli56%

Draw24%

Lazio20%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99

Napoli52%

Draw28%

Lazio20%

Expected goals 1.43 – 0.79

Napoli45%

Draw29%

Lazio25%

Expected goals 1.33 – 0.92

Napoli53%

Draw27%

Lazio20%

Expected goals 1.56 – 0.87

Over 2.5 41% Both score 44% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Napoli)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli

Cards per match 2.8
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 37

Team strength

Napoli

Lazio

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

61 AttackIn forecast 53

70 DefenceIn forecast 63

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Napoli

Lazio

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.97 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.94

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

81% Scored inContext 53%

34% Clean sheetsContext 44%

12.78 ShotsContext 10.75

4.87 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.97

37% On target shareContext 36%

8.22 Shots in the boxContext 6.55

63% Box shareContext 58%

12% ConversionContext 9%

1.77 OffsidesContext 1.59

10.16 Shots allowedContext 12.81

2.97 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.06

3.07 BlocksContext 3.44

2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.16

67% Save rateContext 78%

59% PossessionIn forecast 51%

542 PassesContext 486

471 Accurate passesContext 421

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.66 FoulsContext 9.97

12.22 Fouls sufferedContext 14.63

1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.94

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.16

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

100% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.30 ShotsContext 10.80

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

40% On target shareContext 34%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

64% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.86

8.90 Shots allowedContext 13.30

3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.25 BlocksContext 4.50

2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

65% Save rateContext 70%

61% PossessionIn forecast 52%

565 PassesContext 522

494 Accurate passesContext 461

88% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.80 FoulsContext 8.50

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Napoli

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,088 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lazio

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel187 km468 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Napoli	Lazio
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 12 Apr	4.9Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	187 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,088 km	468 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	9.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

32V. Milinković-Savić(G)

17M. Olivera 4A. Buongiorno 31S. Beukema

37L. Spinazzola 68S. Lobotka 99F. Anguissa 21M. Politano

8S. McTominay 11K. De Bruyne

19R. Højlund

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40E. Motta(G)

17Nuno Tavares 13A. Romagnoli 34Mario Gila 29M. Lazzari

24K. Taylor 32D. Cataldi 26T. Bašić

10M. Zaccagni 14T. Noslin 22M. Cancellieri

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Napoli Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lazio Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Napoli+0.8 pp
Draw-0.8 pp
Lazio+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Napoli · Home 2.47points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 11-4-0
Scored: 1.73
Conceded: 0.87

Lazio · Away 1.13points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 4-6-6
Scored: 0.63
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Napoli	Lazio
Parma	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A
AC Milan	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Cagliari	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H
Lecce	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H
Torino	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 AD 3–3 H
Verona	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H
Atalanta	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
AS Roma	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A	L 0–1 H
Genoa	W 3–2 AW 2–1 H	W 3–2 HW 3–0 A
Fiorentina	W 2–1 HW 3–1 A	L 0–1 AD 2–2 H
Juventus	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H
Sassuolo	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Inter	D 2–2 AW 3–1 H	L 0–2 A
Cremonese	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 H
Udinese	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Bologna	L 0–2 A	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H
Como	D 0–0 H	L 0–3 HL 0–2 A
Pisa	W 3–2 H	D 0–0 A
Points	63 of 93 · 2.03 per game	44 of 93 · 1.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Napoli wins2 draws3 Lazio wins

Goals per game1.44 – 0.89 Over 2.556% Both scored44% Clean sheets33% · 33%

4 Jan 2026Lazio0–2Napoli
15 Feb 2025Lazio2–2Napoli
8 Dec 2024Napoli0–1Lazio
28 Jan 2024Lazio0–0Napoli
2 Sep 2023Napoli1–2Lazio
3 Mar 2023Napoli0–1Lazio

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Napoli	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	0.97	0.94
Match goals	2.47	1.94	2.32
Over 1.5	69%	59%
Over 2.5	53%	25%	41%
Over 3.5	25%	16%
Both teams scored	53%	25%	44%
Clean sheets	34%	44%
Failed to score	19%	47%
Games	32	32

	Napoli	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.10
Conceded per game	1.10	1.10
Match goals	2.80	2.20	2.32
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	30%	41%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	44%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Napoli	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	4.87	4.07
Corners conceded	2.93	3.93
Match total	7.80	8.00	8.70
Over 8.5	30% 9/30	48% 14/29
Over 9.5	20% 6/30	31% 9/29
Over 10.5	20% 6/30	14% 4/29
Cards
Cards	1.47	2.16
Opponent cards	1.91	2.78
Match total	3.38	4.94	3.91
Over 3.5	38% 12/32	72% 23/32
Over 4.5	16% 5/32	63% 20/32

	Napoli	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	4.10
Corners conceded	3.10	4.70
Match total	8.00	8.80	8.70
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.70
Opponent cards	1.60	2.60
Match total	3.20	4.30	3.91
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.73league 3.72

Red cards0.11league 0.19

Cards 5+27%league 36%

Fouls23.8league 24.9

Penalties0.30league 0.29

Home wins54%league 41%

Napoli3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.7 Pens for · against1 · 1

D1 Nov 25H · Como0–03
W13 Sep 25A · Fiorentina3–10
W12 Jan 25H · Verona2–00

Lazio4 with this referee

Record3-0-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.5 Pens for · against2 · 1

W30 Jan 26H · Genoa3–22
L1 Dec 24A · Parma1–33
W16 Sep 24H · Verona2–12
W12 Apr 24H · Salernitana4–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.