Napoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were clear favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 26). Napoli come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Napoli had 3 days of rest, Sassuolo 7 and had to travel 520 km.
Away travel520 kmRest days3 · 7Matches / 14d4 · 2
Napoli69%
Draw20%
Sassuolo11%
Napoli73%
Draw18%
Sassuolo10%
Napoli68%
Draw20%
Sassuolo12%
Napoli62%
Draw23%
Sassuolo15%
Napoli73%
Draw17%
Sassuolo10%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 42
Team strength
Napoli
Sassuolo
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
61
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
61
AttackIn forecast
41
70
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NapoliSassuolo
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
0.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.35
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
75%
Scored inContext
65%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.80
ShotsContext
9.95
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.65
36%
On target shareContext
37%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
65%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.69
OffsidesContext
2.06
10.15
Shots allowedContext
13.85
2.68
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.05
3.05
BlocksContext
3.20
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
69%
Save rateContext
73%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
531
PassesContext
390
459
Accurate passesContext
320
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.70
FoulsContext
12.35
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.65
1.35
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
70%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.70
ShotsContext
9.80
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
34%
On target shareContext
39%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
73%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.44
OffsidesContext
1.89
9.20
Shots allowedContext
14.30
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.22
BlocksContext
3.30
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
73%
Save rateContext
69%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
544
PassesContext
396
469
Accurate passesContext
326
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.40
FoulsContext
11.20
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km1,688 km in 14d
Schedule load48%High
Sassuolo
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel520 km694 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 48 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Jan | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 10 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 520 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,688 km | 694 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
5Juan Jesus
13A. Rrahmani
31S. Beukema
37L. Spinazzola
8S. McTominay
68S. Lobotka
22G. Di Lorenzo
20E. Elmas
26A. Vergara
19R. Højlund
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
40A. Vranckx
18N. Matić
35L. Lipani
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
20A. Fadera
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Sassuolo-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
2.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-0
- Scored
- 1.78
- Conceded
- 0.89
Sassuolo · Away
1.20points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-4
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.30
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Napoli | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Inter | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Verona | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lazio | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Cremonese | W 2–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Udinese | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Juventus | W 2–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Atalanta | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Bologna | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Como | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Lecce | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Torino | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Genoa | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| AC Milan | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Pisa | W 3–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 37 of 57 · 1.95 per game | 23 of 57 · 1.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
6 Napoli wins1 draws0 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game3.43 – 0.57
Over 2.557%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets57% · 0%
- 23 Aug 2025Sassuolo0–2Napoli
- 28 Feb 2024Sassuolo1–6Napoli
- 27 Aug 2023Napoli2–0Sassuolo
- 17 Feb 2023Sassuolo0–2Napoli
- 29 Oct 2022Napoli4–0Sassuolo
- 30 Apr 2022Napoli6–1Sassuolo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.85 | 1.35 | |
| Match goals | 2.35 | 2.50 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 35% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Napoli | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.70 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.83 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.83 | 7.80 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 28% 5/18 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 4/18 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 4/18 | 10% 2/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.45 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.05 | 1.95 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.35 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 9/20 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 15% 3/20 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Napoli | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.22 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 7.44 | 7.20 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.60 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.48league 3.83
Red cards0.12league 0.17
Cards 5+57%league 37%
Fouls26.2league 25.7
Penalties0.31league 0.31
Home wins45%league 37%
Napoli2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Aug 22H · Monza4–02
- W19 Mar 22H · Udinese2–12
Sassuolo5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W3 Oct 25A · Verona1–04
- L8 Apr 23A · Verona1–24
- W6 Mar 23H · Cremonese3–21
- W20 Feb 22A · Inter2–02
- D23 Jan 22A · Torino1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Napoli20 games · scored 30 · conceded 17
5
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
7
3
31-45
6
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Sassuolo20 games · scored 23 · conceded 27
6
4
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
8
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
4
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
