Napoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were clear favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 33). Absences weigh more on Napoli. Napoli had 6.1 days of rest, Torino 5.1 and had to travel 711 km.
Away travel711 kmRest days6.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Napoli61%
Draw23%
Torino15%
Napoli66%
Draw20%
Torino13%
Napoli64%
Draw23%
Torino13%
Napoli54%
Draw26%
Torino20%
Napoli62%
Draw22%
Torino15%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 68
Team strength
Napoli
Torino
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
61
AttackIn forecast
39
70
DefenceIn forecast
47
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTorino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NapoliTorino
1.52
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.04
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.74
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
78%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
37%
12.56
ShotsContext
11.52
4.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.15
37%
On target shareContext
36%
8.07
Shots in the boxContext
7.52
63%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.61
OffsidesContext
1.96
10.74
Shots allowedContext
13.44
3.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.15
3.12
BlocksContext
3.89
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.64
67%
Save rateContext
61%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
528
PassesContext
367
455
Accurate passesContext
292
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.93
FoulsContext
13.85
13.04
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.48
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.20
ShotsContext
10.90
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
37%
On target shareContext
33%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
62%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.33
10.70
Shots allowedContext
13.60
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.00
BlocksContext
4.60
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
62%
Save rateContext
59%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
552
PassesContext
375
480
Accurate passesContext
298
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.80
FoulsContext
13.90
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,459 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Torino
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel711 km248 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
Torino |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 5.1Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 711 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,459 km | 248 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
17M. Olivera
4A. Buongiorno
5Juan Jesus
37L. Spinazzola
20E. Elmas
6B. Gilmour
21M. Politano
27Alisson Santos
26A. Vergara
19R. Højlund
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
77E. Ebosse
44A. Ismajli
23Saúl Coco
33Rafael Obrador
66G. Gineitis
4M. Prati
20V. Lazaro
10N. Vlašić
18G. Simeone
91D. Zapata
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Torino
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli-2.6 pp
- Draw+0.9 pp
- Torino+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
2.33points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.92
Torino · Away
1.00points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-6
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Napoli | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Verona | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H |
| AS Roma | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Genoa | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Juventus | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Sassuolo | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Inter | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H | L 0–5 A |
| Lazio | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Cremonese | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Udinese | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Bologna | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Como | D 0–0 H | L 0–6 AL 1–5 H |
| Lecce | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| AC Milan | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Pisa | W 3–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Cagliari | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 53 of 78 · 2.04 per game | 27 of 78 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
6 Napoli wins1 draws2 Torino wins
Goals per game1.44 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored22%
Clean sheets56% · 22%
- 18 Oct 2025Torino1–0Napoli
- 27 Apr 2025Napoli2–0Torino
- 1 Dec 2024Torino0–1Napoli
- 8 Mar 2024Napoli1–1Torino
- 7 Jan 2024Torino3–0Napoli
- 19 Mar 2023Torino0–4Napoli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.52 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.04 | 1.74 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.74 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 59% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 41% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 37% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Napoli | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.48 | 3.84 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.96 | 4.52 | |
| Match total | 7.44 | 8.36 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 24% 6/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 16% 4/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 16% 4/25 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.59 | 2.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.37 | |
| Match total | 3.59 | 3.41 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 11/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 19% 5/27 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Napoli | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.60 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 8.20 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.40 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.06league 3.77
Red cards0.31league 0.19
Cards 5+34%league 37%
Fouls24.2league 25.2
Penalties0.16league 0.31
Home wins37%league 39%
Napoli10 with this referee
Record6-4-0
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- D14 Jan 26H · Parma0–01
- W14 Apr 25H · Empoli3–01
- D2 Feb 25A · AS Roma1–11
- W1 Dec 24A · Torino1–01
- D14 Apr 24H · Frosinone2–23
Torino8 with this referee
Record1-2-5
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L14 Feb 25A · Bologna2–34
- D11 Jan 25H · Juventus1–14
- L1 Dec 24H · Napoli0–14
- L31 Oct 24A · AS Roma0–12
- D23 Dec 23H · Udinese1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Napoli27 games · scored 41 · conceded 28
8
4
0-15
6
3
16-30
8
3
31-45
7
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
8
5
76-90
Torino27 games · scored 27 · conceded 47
2
4
0-15
7
10
16-30
4
8
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
10
61-75
6
8
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
