Napoli vs Verona – 7 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 19 Wed, Jan 7 · 17:30 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

Napoli 3rd · 37 pts · 17 played WWLWW

2–2Full time

Verona 19th · 12 pts · 17 played LWWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli were clear favourites.

Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 22). Napoli usually keep the ball (55% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Napoli had 3.3 days of rest, Verona 3 and had to travel 575 km.

Away travel575 kmRest days3.3 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Napoli75%

Draw17%

Verona8%

Expected goals 2.35 – 0.63

Napoli77%

Draw16%

Verona8%

Expected goals 2.53 – 0.71

Napoli75%

Draw17%

Verona8%

Expected goals 2.33 – 0.63

Napoli69%

Draw20%

Verona11%

Expected goals 2.09 – 0.71

Napoli77%

Draw15%

Verona8%

Expected goals 2.54 – 0.70

Over 2.5 57% Both score 43% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Napoli)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 48

Team strength

Napoli

Verona

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

61 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

61 AttackIn forecast 15

70 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Napoli

Verona

1.53 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.76

0.76 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.65

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

76% Scored inContext 53%

41% Clean sheetsContext 18%

13.00 ShotsContext 11.41

5.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.29

37% On target shareContext 38%

8.41 Shots in the boxContext 6.76

63% Box shareContext 59%

12% ConversionContext 7%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.21

10.29 Shots allowedContext 13.29

2.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63

3.00 BlocksContext 4.35

2.07 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

73% Save rateContext 65%

57% PossessionIn forecast 40%

515 PassesContext 314

444 Accurate passesContext 232

86% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.65

12.06 FoulsContext 16.82

12.94 Fouls sufferedContext 8.18

1.47 Yellow cardsContext 2.47

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

60% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.30 ShotsContext 9.70

4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

33% On target shareContext 40%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.10

67% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.38

9.50 Shots allowedContext 14.80

3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.89 BlocksContext 5.00

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

82% Save rateContext 62%

56% PossessionIn forecast 40%

520 PassesContext 312

445 Accurate passesContext 228

86% Pass accuracyContext 73%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.65

12.20 FoulsContext 17.10

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 7.80

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Napoli

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,549 km in 14d

Schedule load13%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Verona

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel575 km282 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Napoli	Verona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 13	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.3Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Jan	3Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	575 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,549 km	282 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

32V. Milinković-Savić(G)

4A. Buongiorno 13A. Rrahmani 22G. Di Lorenzo

3Miguel Gutiérrez 8S. McTominay 68S. Lobotka 21M. Politano

70N. Lang 20E. Elmas

19R. Højlund

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

6N. Valentini 37A. Bella-Kotchap 5Unai Núñez

3M. Frese 24A. Bernede 63R. Gagliardini 36C. Niasse 12D. Bradarić

16G. Orban 9A. Sarr

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Napoli Absences are shown before kick-off

Verona Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Napoli+0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Verona-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Napoli · Home 2.71points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 6-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.86

Verona · Away 0.67points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-5
Scored: 0.56
Conceded: 1.78

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Napoli	Verona
Lazio	W 2–0 A	L 0–4 A
Cremonese	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 H
Udinese	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Juventus	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
AS Roma	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 A
Atalanta	W 3–1 H	W 3–1 H
Como	D 0–0 H	L 1–3 A
Lecce	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 A
Inter	W 3–1 H	L 1–2 H
Torino	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 H
Genoa	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 A
AC Milan	L 1–2 A	L 0–3 A
Pisa	W 3–2 H	D 0–0 A
Fiorentina	W 3–1 A	W 2–1 A
Cagliari	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 H
Sassuolo	W 2–0 A	L 0–1 H
Points	37 of 48 · 2.31 per game	12 of 48 · 0.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Napoli wins2 draws1 Verona wins

Goals per game1.88 – 1.13 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 25%

12 Jan 2025Napoli2–0Verona
18 Aug 2024Verona3–0Napoli
4 Feb 2024Napoli2–1Verona
21 Oct 2023Verona1–3Napoli
15 Apr 2023Napoli0–0Verona
15 Aug 2022Verona2–5Napoli

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Napoli	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.53	0.76
Conceded per game	0.76	1.65
Match goals	2.29	2.41	2.98
Over 1.5	65%	76%
Over 2.5	41%	59%	57%
Over 3.5	24%	24%
Both teams scored	41%	53%	43%
Clean sheets	41%	18%
Failed to score	24%	47%
Games	17	17

	Napoli	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.10
Conceded per game	0.60	1.90
Match goals	2.00	3.00	2.98
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	90%	57%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	70%	43%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Napoli	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.07	3.76
Corners conceded	3.00	4.76
Match total	8.07	8.52	8.84
Over 8.5	33% 5/15	53% 9/17
Over 9.5	27% 4/15	41% 7/17
Over 10.5	27% 4/15	24% 4/17
Cards
Cards	1.53	2.47
Opponent cards	2.06	1.76
Match total	3.59	4.23	4.01
Over 3.5	47% 8/17	65% 11/17
Over 4.5	18% 3/17	53% 9/17

	Napoli	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	3.50
Corners conceded	2.78	5.20
Match total	7.89	8.70	8.84
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.70
Opponent cards	2.00	1.50
Match total	4.00	4.20	4.01
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 48 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 3.88

Red cards0.19league 0.17

Cards 5+44%league 37%

Fouls25.4league 25.8

Penalties0.23league 0.30

Home wins42%league 39%

Napoli5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.4 Pens for · against2 · 0

L18 Aug 24A · Verona0–31
D17 May 24A · Fiorentina2–22
W7 May 23H · Fiorentina1–00
W19 Mar 23A · Torino4–01
W22 May 22A · Spezia3–02

Verona5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D13 Apr 25H · Genoa0–03
L3 Mar 25A · Juventus0–20
W18 Aug 24H · Napoli3–04
L1 Apr 23A · Juventus0–12
D27 Oct 21A · Udinese1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.