Napoli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Napoli75.5%fair odds 1.33
Draw16.7%fair odds 5.98
Verona7.8%fair odds 12.79
Expected goals2.35 – 0.63total 2.98
Likeliest score2–014.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Verona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Napoli ↓ · Verona → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Napoli goals, columns Verona goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–014.0%7.13
- 1–011.6%8.65
- 3–011.0%9.11
- 2–18.8%11.31
- 1–17.9%12.60
- 3–16.9%14.46
- 4–06.4%15.54
- 0–05.5%18.20
- 4–14.1%24.65
- 5–03.0%33.11
Winning margin
30.2%
Napoli by 3+
fair 3.31
22.4%
Napoli by 2
fair 4.47
22.9%
Napoli by 1
fair 4.37
16.7%
Draw
fair 5.98
5.9%
Verona by 1
fair 17.09
1.6%
Verona by 2
fair 61.96
0.4%
Verona by 3+
fair 281.79
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Napoli goals
10%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
21%4+
Verona goals
53%0
34%1
11%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli win | 75.5% | 76.8% | -1.4 pp |
| Draw | 16.7% | 15.4% | +1.3 pp |
| Verona win | 7.8% | 7.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 63.0% | -5.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 42.7% | 46.9% | -4.3 pp |
| Expected goals Napoli | 2.35 | 2.54 | -0.20 |
| Expected goals Verona | 0.63 | 0.70 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Napoli win75.5%1.33
- Draw16.7%5.98
- Verona win7.8%12.79
- Double chance Napoli or draw92.2%1.08
- Double chance Napoli or Verona83.3%1.20
- Double chance Verona or draw24.5%4.07
- Draw no bet Napoli90.6%1.10
- Draw no bet Verona9.4%10.65
Goals
- Over 0.594.5%1.06
- Over 1.580.1%1.25
- Over 2.557.2%1.75
- Over 3.534.8%2.88
- Over 4.518.1%5.53
- Under 1.519.9%5.03
- Under 2.542.8%2.33
- Under 3.565.2%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes42.7%2.34
- No57.3%1.74
- Yes and over 2.534.7%2.88
- Napoli win and yes27.7%3.61
- Draw and yes11.2%8.91
- Verona win and yes3.7%26.71
Team goals
- Napoli over 0.590.4%1.11
- Napoli over 1.568.0%1.47
- Napoli over 2.541.6%2.40
- Verona over 0.546.8%2.14
- Verona over 1.513.2%7.58
- Verona over 2.52.6%38.13
- Napoli clean sheet53.2%1.88
- Verona clean sheet9.6%10.45
- Napoli win to nil47.7%2.09
- Verona win to nil4.1%24.53
Handicap
- Napoli −1.552.6%1.90
- Napoli −2.530.2%3.31
- Verona +1.547.4%2.11
- Verona +2.569.8%1.43
- Verona −1.52.0%50.79
- Napoli +1.598.0%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored179
Favourite won50.8%
Avg chance given to result40.3%
1X2 Brier0.606
Over 2.5 called right56.4%
BTTS called right48.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 27 | 37.8% | 40.7% |
| 40–50% | 58 | 44.6% | 48.3% |
| 50–60% | 44 | 54.7% | 43.2% |
| 60–70% | 32 | 64.5% | 68.8% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 72.9% | 61.5% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 158 of 179 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6015 | 0.5849 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.3% | 40.7% |
| Favourite won | 50.6% | 50.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 158 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 179 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.