Newcastle vs Bournemouth – 18 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 33 Sat, Apr 18 · 15:00 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 14th · 42 pts · 32 played LWWLL

1–2Full time

Bournemouth 11th · 45 pts · 32 played DDDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Bournemouth. Newcastle had 6 days of rest, Bournemouth 7.1 and had to travel 473 km.

Away travel473 kmRest days6 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Newcastle39%

Draw23%

Bournemouth38%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.72

Newcastle44%

Draw27%

Bournemouth29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Newcastle40%

Draw23%

Bournemouth37%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.70

Newcastle31%

Draw23%

Bournemouth46%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.92

Newcastle38%

Draw24%

Bournemouth37%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.61

Over 2.5 67% Both score 68% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Bramall

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 107

Team strength

Newcastle

Bournemouth

76 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

61 AttackIn forecast 83

61 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Bournemouth

1.41 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.47 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.53

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

78% Scored inContext 78%

25% Clean sheetsContext 28%

13.00 ShotsContext 13.81

4.66 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.72

36% On target shareContext 34%

8.31 Shots in the boxContext 8.42

62% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.15 OffsidesContext 2.14

11.91 Shots allowedContext 12.75

4.28 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.47

3.79 BlocksContext 4.25

2.94 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

67% Save rateContext 69%

53% PossessionIn forecast 50%

451 PassesContext 412

375 Accurate passesContext 329

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.23 FoulsContext 12.03

12.19 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.72 Yellow cardsContext 2.31

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.39

100% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.30 ShotsContext 14.20

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

45% On target shareContext 32%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

64% Box shareContext 58%

15% ConversionContext 9%

3.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.50 Shots allowedContext 13.10

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.50 BlocksContext 5.10

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

61% Save rateContext 83%

51% PossessionIn forecast 52%

424 PassesContext 428

350 Accurate passesContext 344

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.80 Team ratingContext 7.01

12.00 FoulsContext 10.90

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km796 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bournemouth

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel473 km301 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2025-2026, 12 Apr	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	473 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	796 km	301 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

32A. Ramsdale(G)

3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 21V. Livramento

41J. Ramsey 67L. Miley 8S. Tonali

11H. Barnes 18W. Osula 20A. Elanga

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 20Álex Jiménez

10R. Christie 8A. Scott

16M. Tavernier 22E. Kroupi 37Rayan

9Evanilson

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle-0.9 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Bournemouth+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.63points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 8-2-6
Scored: 1.81
Conceded: 1.63

Bournemouth · Away 1.19points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 4-7-5
Scored: 1.56
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Bournemouth
Crystal Palace	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	D 3–3 A
Sunderland	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A
Chelsea	W 1–0 AD 2–2 H	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H
Manchester United	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 HD 4–4 A
Everton	L 2–3 HW 4–1 A	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H
Manchester City	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	L 1–3 A
Tottenham	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A
Brentford	L 2–3 HL 1–3 A	D 0–0 HL 1–4 A
Liverpool	L 1–4 AL 2–3 H	W 3–2 HL 2–4 A
Aston Villa	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 HL 0–4 A
Wolves	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H
Leeds	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A	D 2–2 A
Burnley	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
West Ham	L 1–3 A	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H
Fulham	W 2–1 H	W 3–1 H
Brighton	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 H
Arsenal	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H
Points	41 of 93 · 1.32 per game	44 of 93 · 1.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Newcastle wins6 draws2 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.63 Over 2.538% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 25%

10 Jan 2026Newcastle2–2Bournemouth
21 Sep 2025Bournemouth0–0Newcastle
18 Jan 2025Newcastle1–4Bournemouth
25 Aug 2024Bournemouth1–1Newcastle
17 Feb 2024Newcastle2–2Bournemouth
11 Nov 2023Bournemouth2–0Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.41	1.50
Conceded per game	1.47	1.53
Match goals	2.88	3.03	3.47
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	66%	56%	67%
Over 3.5	34%	47%
Both teams scored	66%	66%	68%
Clean sheets	25%	28%
Failed to score	22%	22%
Games	32	32

	Newcastle	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.30
Conceded per game	2.00	0.80
Match goals	3.30	2.10	3.47
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	67%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	68%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	5.50
Corners conceded	4.94	5.80
Match total	11.44	11.30	10.07
Over 8.5	78% 25/32	80% 24/30
Over 9.5	63% 20/32	70% 21/30
Over 10.5	53% 17/32	60% 18/30
Cards
Cards	1.81	2.34
Opponent cards	2.41	1.94
Match total	4.22	4.28	3.90
Over 3.5	59% 19/32	66% 21/32
Over 4.5	38% 12/32	44% 14/32

	Newcastle	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	5.30
Corners conceded	5.00	6.50
Match total	10.20	11.80	10.07
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	1.60
Match total	4.20	3.60	3.90
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 107 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.70league 3.76

Red cards0.14league 0.13

Cards 5+40%league 39%

Fouls22.0league 21.5

Penalties0.19league 0.22

Home wins48%league 42%

Newcastle7 with this referee

Record2-3-2 Cards · opp.2.1 · 3.0 Pens for · against3 · 1

L21 Feb 26A · Manchester City1–25
D10 Jan 26H · Bournemouth2–21
D2 Dec 25H · Tottenham2–20
W14 Dec 24H · Leicester4–03
L24 Apr 24A · Crystal Palace0–23

Bournemouth8 with this referee

Record1-5-2 Cards · opp.3.1 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

D10 Jan 26A · Newcastle2–25
D22 Nov 25H · West Ham2–23
W23 Aug 25H · Wolves1–02
L20 May 25A · Manchester City1–34
D26 Dec 24H · Crystal Palace0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.