Newcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel398 kmRest days8.8 · 9.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Newcastle—%
Draw—%
Fulham—%
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)
Forecast from 1 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Newcastle and Fulham. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Fulham
+0.31
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.61xG against1.30
-
Trend
Newcastle
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Newcastle
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.19xG against1.60
-
Alert
Newcastle
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
NewcastleFulham
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
61
AttackIn forecast
66
61
DefenceIn forecast
68
35
Form indexContext
42
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NewcastleFulham
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.62
86%
Scored inContext
71%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.29
ShotsContext
14.71
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
29%
On target shareContext
32%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
62%
Box shareContext
74%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.71
OffsidesContext
1.00
17.43
Shots allowedContext
14.14
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
7.57
BlocksContext
4.43
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
62%
Save rateContext
66%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
430
PassesContext
564
359
Accurate passesContext
486
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.14
FoulsContext
10.43
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
8.43
2.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.40
ShotsContext
15.10
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
32%
On target shareContext
31%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.60
59%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.11
17.50
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
6.90
BlocksContext
3.89
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
68%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
452
PassesContext
548
380
Accurate passesContext
472
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.00
FoulsContext
10.60
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Newcastle
DLWLL
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,137 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected
Fulham
LDDLW
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel398 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 42 · 5 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Newcastle |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Premier League 2026-2027, 7 Jan | 9.8Premier League 2026-2027, 6 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 398 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,137 km | 350 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Newcastle
Last XI · not confirmed
21L. Horníček(G)
3L. Hall
4S. Botman
12M. Thiaw
67L. Miley
7Joelinton
6Nico González
11H. Barnes
28J. Willock
20M. Fernandez-Pardo
9Y. Wissa
Fulham
Last XI · not confirmed
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
3C. Bassey
22D. Affengruber
21T. Castagne
19S. Charles
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
24J. King
14O. Bobb
7Gonzalo García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Newcastle
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Fulham
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Newcastle · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Fulham · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Newcastle | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Liverpool | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 Newcastle wins1 draws3 Fulham wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets40% · 10%
- 24 May 2026Fulham2–0Newcastle
- 25 Oct 2025Newcastle2–1Fulham
- 1 Feb 2025Newcastle1–2Fulham
- 21 Sep 2024Fulham3–1Newcastle
- 6 Apr 2024Fulham0–1Newcastle
- 16 Dec 2023Newcastle3–0Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Newcastle | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 2.43 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Newcastle | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.20 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Newcastle | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 6.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.29 | 4.29 | |
| Match total | 9.86 | 10.72 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 0.86 | |
| Match total | 4.85 | 3.00 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Newcastle | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.90 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.40 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Newcastle7 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Fulham7 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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